Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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230 FXUS64 KMAF 052230 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 530 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Saturday night) Issued at 204 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 WV imagery shows a bifurcated upper ridge persisting over the southern CONUS, with one half off the west coast of NoCal, and the other over the Gulf coast states, placing the col over central Texas this afternoon. Radar estimates that over 2.75" of rain fell in some locations yesterday, and wet soils will combine with a cold front intruding upon the region to keep afternoon highs right around normal. The cold front, as well as being in the col in general, will serve as a focus for afternoon and overnight convection. A mid- level jet to the north may scrape the northern zones this afternoon/evening, providing a Little organization to any activity that develops there. Steep mid-level lapse rates conducive to large hail will remain to the west for the most part, but CAMs bring these into parts of Southeast New Mexico this afternoon and evening as well, for a marginal severe threat. Cool easterly flow, the absence of a LLJ, and expected convection will keep overnight minimums within a couple of degrees of normal. Unfortunately, Saturday doesn`t look much better than today, with thicknesses decreasing slightly under the col and temperatures coming in very similar to today`s, if not a skosh cooler despite the resumption of light return flow. Best chances of convection looks to be along the old frontal boundary to the south. To the north, a broad trough will be digging into the region, sending shortwaves through northwest flow aloft, opening an additional window for development. Again, better jet dynamics and steepest mid-level lapse rates favor severe storms in Southeast New Mexico. This activity should diminish during the evening hours, despite the return of a 30+ kt LLJ. This will keep mixing in play, keeping overnight lows ~ 5 F above normal. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 204 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Sunday will be the warmest day in the long term as the cold front that moved south through the area on Friday moves back north as a warm front, with decreasing clouds and rain chances allowing for increased daytime heating and allowing highs to climb 5 to 10 degrees above average and into the triple digits for most of the SE NM plains, Pecos River valley including the Reeves County plains into the Stockton Plateau, the basins of Culberson County, and near the Rio Grande, with 90s elsewhere, and 80s in the higher elevations of the Guadalupes and Marfa Plateau into lower Trans Pecos. Monday the front moves back south and stalls, as the bifurcated ridge to the east and west strengthens and the trough over the central CONUS persists. Highs Monday through Friday next week are expected to be near to below normal for this time of year due to cooler easterly flow and more widespread clouds and rain chances than Sunday, with widespread 90s, 80s in northern areas and higher elevations, and triple digits confined to along the Rio Grande. Tuesday is likely to be the "coldest" day in the long term, with highs at or below average everywhere and 80s extending into the central Permian Basin, 70s in higher elevations of western terrain. Highs increase each day back to near average by next Friday. After Sunday`s warm-up, Sunday night and Monday night feature lows only falling into the 70s and above, 60s northern Lea County and Permian Basin, higher elevations, and Marfa Plateau into lower Trans Pecos. However, Tuesday night and onward, lows fall into the 60s over most of the of the area aside from 70s along the Pecos River, over eastern Permian Basin into Stockton Plateau, and near the Rio Grande. This will be a result of cooler highs allowing temperatures to decrease from lower starting highs compared to this past week. NHC forecast and ensembles today indicate that rather than taking a track northwest into the area as forecast yesterday, Beryl curves northeast away from the area after making landfall in S TX. This indicates our area sees increased subsidence and decreased rain chances than if the remnants of the storm track northwest into the area. Regardless of impacts from remnants, the stalled frontal boundary, deep easterly surface upslope flow, and trough over central CONUS all keep rain chances in the forecast for most of next week. Rainfall totals have come down from previous runs, with NBM grids showing about a tenth of an inch less than yesterday throughout the area, and 75th to 25th percentiles for rain on NBM and LREF TLE-NH clustering on DESI showing only a few tenths of an inch at most for total accumulations southwest of the Pecos River and mean total around half an inch at most east and northeast of the Pecos River. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 527 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Latest NBM is now bringing a few hours of MVFR stratus into KMAF/KHOB Saturday morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours except in areas of direct convection. Post- frontal northeasterly flow will veer back to return flow by late Saturday morning, but remain light due to the absence of a LLJ overnight. Forecast soundings develop a widespread cu field by late Saturday morning, w/bases ~4.5 kft AGL. Convection will be possible again all terminals, but Southeast New Mexico looks to have the best chances. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 70 93 73 101 / 40 40 0 0 Carlsbad 70 92 71 103 / 60 30 10 0 Dryden 75 97 73 101 / 20 20 0 0 Fort Stockton 72 94 74 102 / 40 30 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 64 86 69 96 / 50 40 20 10 Hobbs 67 90 70 100 / 50 40 10 0 Marfa 63 90 63 96 / 40 50 10 10 Midland Intl Airport 71 91 73 99 / 30 30 10 0 Odessa 71 91 74 99 / 30 30 10 0 Wink 73 96 74 104 / 40 20 10 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....94 AVIATION...44