085
FXUS64 KMAF 060531
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1231 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday night)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

WV imagery shows a bifurcated upper ridge persisting over the
southern CONUS, with one half off the west coast of NoCal, and the
other over the Gulf coast states, placing the col over central
Texas this afternoon. Radar estimates that over 2.75" of rain fell
in some locations yesterday, and wet soils will combine with a
cold front intruding upon the region to keep afternoon highs right
around normal.

The cold front, as well as being in the col in general, will
serve as a focus for afternoon and overnight convection. A mid-
level jet to the north may scrape the northern zones this
afternoon/evening, providing a Little organization to any activity
that develops there. Steep mid-level lapse rates conducive to
large hail will remain to the west for the most part, but CAMs
bring these into parts of Southeast New Mexico this afternoon and
evening as well, for a marginal severe threat. Cool easterly flow,
the absence of a LLJ, and expected convection will keep overnight
minimums within a couple of degrees of normal.

Unfortunately, Saturday doesn`t look much better than today, with
thicknesses decreasing slightly under the col and temperatures
coming in very similar to today`s, if not a skosh cooler despite
the resumption of light return flow. Best chances of convection
looks to be along the old frontal boundary to the south. To the
north, a broad trough will be digging into the region, sending
shortwaves through northwest flow aloft, opening an additional
window for development. Again, better jet dynamics and steepest
mid-level lapse rates favor severe storms in Southeast New Mexico.

This activity should diminish during the evening hours, despite
the return of a 30+ kt LLJ. This will keep mixing in play, keeping
overnight lows ~ 5 F above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Sunday will be the warmest day in the long term as the cold front
that moved south through the area on Friday moves back north as a
warm front, with decreasing clouds and rain chances allowing for
increased daytime heating and allowing highs to climb 5 to 10
degrees above average and into the triple digits for most of the
SE NM plains, Pecos River valley including the Reeves County
plains into the Stockton Plateau, the basins of Culberson County,
and near the Rio Grande, with 90s elsewhere, and 80s in the higher
elevations of the Guadalupes and Marfa Plateau into lower Trans
Pecos. Monday the front moves back south and stalls, as the
bifurcated ridge to the east and west strengthens and the trough
over the central CONUS persists. Highs Monday through Friday next
week are expected to be near to below normal for this time of year
due to cooler easterly flow and more widespread clouds and rain
chances than Sunday, with widespread 90s, 80s in northern areas
and higher elevations, and triple digits confined to along the Rio
Grande. Tuesday is likely to be the "coldest" day in the long
term, with highs at or below average everywhere and 80s extending
into the central Permian Basin, 70s in higher elevations of
western terrain. Highs increase each day back to near average by
next Friday. After Sunday`s warm-up, Sunday night and Monday night
feature lows only falling into the 70s and above, 60s northern
Lea County and Permian Basin, higher elevations, and Marfa Plateau
into lower Trans Pecos. However, Tuesday night and onward, lows
fall into the 60s over most of the of the area aside from 70s
along the Pecos River, over eastern Permian Basin into Stockton
Plateau, and near the Rio Grande. This will be a result of cooler
highs allowing temperatures to decrease from lower starting highs
compared to this past week.

NHC forecast and ensembles today indicate that rather than taking
a track northwest into the area as forecast yesterday, Beryl
curves northeast away from the area after making landfall in S TX.
This indicates our area sees increased subsidence and decreased
rain chances than if the remnants of the storm track northwest
into the area. Regardless of impacts from remnants, the stalled
frontal boundary, deep easterly surface upslope flow, and trough
over central CONUS all keep rain chances in the forecast for most
of next week. Rainfall totals have come down from previous runs,
with NBM grids showing about a tenth of an inch less than
yesterday throughout the area, and 75th to 25th percentiles for
rain on NBM and LREF TLE-NH clustering on DESI showing only a few
tenths of an inch at most for total accumulations southwest of the
Pecos River and mean total around half an inch at most east and
northeast of the Pecos River.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

TS continues near CNM and is expected to diminish over the next
couple of hours. Otherwise VFR conditions and light southeast
winds will continue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               73 101  74  94 /   0   0  10  30
Carlsbad                 71 103  71  92 /  10   0   0  30
Dryden                   73 101  75  99 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton            74 102  75  98 /   0   0   0  20
Guadalupe Pass           69  96  68  86 /  20  10   0  30
Hobbs                    70 100  69  90 /  10   0  10  30
Marfa                    63  96  64  94 /  10  10   0  30
Midland Intl Airport     73  99  74  93 /  10   0   0  20
Odessa                   74  99  75  94 /  10   0   0  20
Wink                     74 104  76  97 /  10   0   0  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...10