Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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357 FXUS64 KMAF 061118 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 618 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday afternoon) Issued at 332 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Current radar shows convection continuing from southeastern New Mexico south to I-10. Hi-Res models are having a hard time handling this precipitation with the NAM perhaps doing the best job showing it moving south into Texas before dissipating later this morning. It`s good to see Eddy and Culberson counties getting the rainfall as they have missed out on earlier rounds of rain the past several weeks. Widely scattered showers and storms are expected to develop again this afternoon, mainly in the Davis and Guadalupe mountains, before moving into the adjacent plains. Easterly winds will advect in modified air keeping temperatures below normal for another day though temps will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday. Overnight lows drop to near normal Sunday morning under clear skies and light winds. Sunday winds become south to southwesterly ahead of a cold front expected to arrive Sunday night. These winds will advect in hotter temps and highs will reach the upper 90s to low 100s across much of the area. Drier air eliminates rain chances on Sunday. Hennig && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 332 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 After Sunday`s hot day, a cold front quickly surges back into the area for Monday, once again providing a break from the summertime heat. Those in the Permian Basin and Southeast New Mexico will enjoy high temperatures in the 80s to low 90s while those along/south of I- 10 should still roast in the upper 90s and triple digits. In addition to the typical storms over the Davis Mountains, scattered thunderstorms are anticipated along the front as it pushes through the northern half of the area. Any thunderstorm will likely sustain through the overnight hours thanks to the front. Tuesday likely ends up being the "coolest" day of the long term in the post-frontal set up. Beyond Tuesday, the broad long-wave troughing across the central US starts to slide eastward, allowing upper ridging to slide a little closer into the Four Corners. This kicks off a gradual warming trend that has everyone back into the mid to upper 90s by the end of the week. While for a short time it may have looked like some appreciable rain chances were coming this week with the upcoming front on Monday, unfortunately, it looks like it`s going to generally be "one and done" for most with the best rain chances for Monday into Monday night. Beyond this, the front looks like push all the way down into Mexico for Tuesday, returning the storm chances back to the classic locations of the Davis Mountains and western high terrain each afternoon through the remainder of the week. -Munyan && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 615 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Showers have been slow to dissipate, but current radar shows most rain has ended. Upper clouds from overnight storms are obscuring lower clouds near SCT050 though there is an IFR deck near HOB that could threaten other TAF sites. No models are showing the IFR clouds other than HOB so will keep it out of the other sites and amend if needed. Too much uncertainty in TS after 18Z to mention in any TAFs at this time as well. Hennig && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 93 73 102 72 / 20 10 0 10 Carlsbad 93 73 104 71 / 30 10 0 10 Dryden 97 74 101 75 / 20 10 0 0 Fort Stockton 95 74 102 75 / 30 10 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 86 70 96 67 / 30 20 10 10 Hobbs 90 70 101 67 / 20 10 0 10 Marfa 90 63 96 64 / 50 30 20 10 Midland Intl Airport 92 73 100 73 / 20 10 0 10 Odessa 92 74 101 74 / 20 10 0 10 Wink 95 75 104 76 / 10 10 0 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...10