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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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531 FXUS64 KLZK 041722 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1222 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday Night) Issued at 346 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Temperatures across AR on this 4th of July morning ranged from the mid 70s to lower 80s. These warm readings will set the stage for another dangerously hot and humid afternoon across the region. Looking at the larger scale pattern, H500 ridging was nearly centered overtop the Srn MS Valley. Closer to the surface, high pressure was located along the Srn Appalachians Mtns with low pressure near the TX and OK Panhandles. Between these surface features, winds will be out of the S and SW at around 10 to 15 mph locally. Given the antecedent starting point in temperatures this morning, the heat will build in quickly with readings reaching the mid 90s to near 100 degrees this afternoon. Accounting for high humidity already in place, heat index values are expected to climb above 110 degrees across the Excessive Heat Warning area and range from 105 to 110 degrees across the Heat Advisory area. These warnings and advisories cover the entire state thus no relief to be found, at least through the late afternoon hours. Perhaps a stray afternoon shower will bring relief to some, but these should prove to be far and few between. By this evening, a cold front will approach NWrn AR from the plains states with better coverage of showers and thunderstorms developing near this boundary. This activity will affect the aforementioned locations near dark to the overnight period tonight. While the threat for organized severe weather is low, an isolated strong to severe storm is possible. Damaging winds and marginally large hail would be primary concerns. Those participating in firework activities should pay close attention to changing weather conditions over far Wrn AR, into NWrn/Nrn AR. Overnight into Friday, the cold front will push further into AR with precipitation advancing SEwrd. PoPs will ramp up over Cntrl AR as showers and thunderstorms move across the state. This activity will push SEwrd through the day on Friday across Srn sections of the state. In the wake of the boundary, the cold front will switch surface winds back to the N and NE thus dry air advection will commence. Dew point temperatures will fall back into the 60s with temperatures only climbing into the 80s to lower 90s. At this time, heat headlines may not be needed for Friday. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 346 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Large scale troughing will overtake most areas east of the Rockies in the extended period, with some ridging along the Gulf Coast and the western states. This will keep us out of the excessive heat business, and there will be better chances of rain. The period will begin with a stalled front in northern Louisiana, and small chances of showers/thunderstorms near the front in southern Arkansas on Saturday. The front will drift northward into the state on Sunday, with isolated to scattered precipitation during the afternoon in all but the northeast. Temperatures during the weekend will be seasonal. Heading into early next week, another cold front will arrive from the Plains on Monday. Just like its predecessor, it appears the front will come to a halt and may wash out somewhere over the central or southern counties. At the same time, the remnants of tropical system Beryl will be well to our south, and moisture surrounding the system may come into play locally. Have hit/miss thunderstorms mentioned Monday through Wednesday, especially during the afternoon/early evening. In addition to some much needed rain, temperatures will remain close to normal/not so hot. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 VFR condition are expected through much of the period. With that said, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening across northern terminals. There is some uncertainity on how far south these showers and storms will get, therefore, PROB30 groups were written for most central and southern terminals. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 73 90 66 91 / 60 20 0 0 Camden AR 75 92 70 93 / 30 50 20 20 Harrison AR 69 86 62 90 / 50 10 0 0 Hot Springs AR 75 92 69 93 / 40 30 10 10 Little Rock AR 77 92 72 92 / 40 30 10 10 Monticello AR 77 92 72 91 / 40 70 20 20 Mount Ida AR 72 90 66 92 / 50 30 10 10 Mountain Home AR 71 86 64 89 / 70 10 0 0 Newport AR 75 90 68 90 / 50 20 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 76 91 70 91 / 40 50 10 10 Russellville AR 74 91 68 92 / 60 20 10 10 Searcy AR 74 91 68 91 / 50 30 10 10 Stuttgart AR 77 90 71 90 / 50 40 10 10 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069- 113-121>123-130-138-212-213-230-238. Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ103-112-137-140- 141-203-221>223-237-240-241-313-340-341. && $$ SHORT TERM...70 LONG TERM....46 AVIATION...73