913
FXUS64 KLZK 040545
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1245 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

The ridge of high pressure across the area is being flattened by a
trof moving thru the midsection of the country. The ridge will hold
thru tomorrow, but will eventually give way to lower heights on
Friday, when a mean trof takes hold of the area.

Very hot and humid conditions will continue again tomorrow. Forecast
afternoon maximum heat indices were trending a bit higher in a
few areas, so I expanded it to include the rest of the AR River
Valley tomorrow, and in the NE I added Fulton and Izard Counties
to the mix.

Everything will change on Friday as the trof takes hold, and a cold
front will begin moving into the state. Showers and thunderstorms
will become more numerous Thursday night into Friday, and will drop
high temperatures down into the 80`s behind the front.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Changes in the pattern will be seen across the state and region
through the long term portion of the forecast. For most, these
changes will be well received.

H500 ridging will persist across the western US with troughing noted
across the central and eastern parts of the country. This setup will
be favorable for some relief from the heat as well as occasional
rainfall chances as disturbances pass through the W/NW flow.

Dry conditions will be seen for much of the state on Saturday as sfc
ridging briefly holds over the area. From Sun-Mon a cold front will
approach from the NW and rain chances will increase as it moves into
the state. Temperatures will be cooler as the front lingers near the
state and some rain chances will remain in the forecast through
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Mainly VFR conds are expected through the TAF period at most
locations. Could be some FG near KADF where the dew point
depression was zero. Any FG that develops should dissipate
shortly after daylight. Winds should be out of the S/SW on Thurs
with speeds between 10 and 15 kts. PROB30 groups were introduced
over Nrn sites late in the period with the approach of a cold
front and associated SHRA/TSRA activity.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     96  72  90  66 /  40  50  30  10
Camden AR         97  75  95  70 /  20  20  50  20
Harrison AR       94  69  86  62 /  40  50  10   0
Hot Springs AR    98  75  93  70 /  30  40  40  10
Little Rock   AR  98  77  94  71 /  30  40  40  10
Monticello AR     97  78  94  71 /  30  20  70  30
Mount Ida AR      97  72  90  66 /  20  40  40  10
Mountain Home AR  94  70  86  64 /  50  60  10   0
Newport AR        96  75  89  67 /  40  50  30  10
Pine Bluff AR     97  77  93  70 /  30  30  50  20
Russellville AR   98  75  91  68 /  30  50  30  10
Searcy AR         97  74  91  67 /  40  40  40  10
Stuttgart AR      96  78  91  71 /  30  30  50  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening
for ARZ004-005-014-024-052-103-112-113-123-137-140-141-203-212-
213-221>223-237-240-241-313-340-341.

Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this
evening for ARZ006>008-015>017-025-031>034-039-042>047-053>057-
062>069-121-122-130-138-230-238.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...70