981
FXUS64 KLZK 080536
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1236 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Continue to monitor convection acrs eastern OK this aftn. CAMS have
struggled to get a good handle on things. Based on latest radar
trends, wl include some low PoPs early this evening acrs some our
western zones as the activity is expected to wane close to sunset.

Otherwise, aftn conds have been tranquil acrs the FA, with partly
cloudy skies and temps in the mid 80s to the mid 90s.

Tonight...

Expect some lingering convection early in the west. There are still
indications that sctd convection may affect parts of northwest AR
later tngt as a weak CDFNT apchs fm the northwest. Also, the outer
affects fm Beryl wl bring sctd PoPs into the state fm the southwest
later tngt.

Monday through Tuesday...

Beryl is fcst to make landfall along the TX coast before daybreak on
Mon. The latest NHC guidance conts to take the remnants northward
over east TX Mon, then eventually turn more northeast and track acrs
northwest AR on Tue. The system wl accelerate acrs the FA as it is
absorbed into the long wave upper trof to our northwest.

We continue to emphasize that some deviation in the official track
wl occur with later fcsts. The main impacts on AR fm Beryl cont to
be heavy rainfall and the possibility of flash flooding. Based on
the latest FF guidance, as well as office coordination, we have
opted to hold off on a Flood Watch for our area. It still appears
that the timeframe for heavy rainfall wl be durg the Mon night into
Tue mrng.

The potential for a few tornadoes wl also exist as the remnants
tracks acrs AR. The main focus is generally for locations that are
to the north and east of the center/s track. Abundant cloud cover
and rain chcs wl keep daytime highs well below normal in most areas
Mon and Tue.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

After the remnants of Beryl depart the area, mid-level ridging
across the middle of the country will be pushed east by an expanding
ridge across the western US. This will provide warming temperatures
through the end of the period along with little to no rain chances.
No major disturbances look to approach the forecast area through next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

VFR conds should prevail overnight with only VCSH over portions of
Srn AR. On Mon, SHRA/TSRA activity will increase in coverage from
S to N through the afternoon as the remnants of Beryl move into
the state. MVFR conds are anticipated to develop as lower CIGs and
VIS accompany heavier precipitation. Winds will be out of the
E/NE/N through much of the period with gusts up to 20 kts by
evening. Convection will continue through the end of the period
with near IFR conds to round out the TAF cycle.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     90  70  80  66 /  50  80  90  40
Camden AR         89  71  84  66 /  50  80  70  10
Harrison AR       82  65  72  63 /  70  70  80  30
Hot Springs AR    88  69  80  66 /  60  90  80  20
Little Rock   AR  90  72  83  69 /  50  80  80  30
Monticello AR     92  75  87  69 /  40  60  70  20
Mount Ida AR      85  67  79  64 /  70  90  80  20
Mountain Home AR  84  67  73  64 /  60  70  90  40
Newport AR        89  72  82  68 /  30  70  90  40
Pine Bluff AR     91  73  84  68 /  40  70  80  20
Russellville AR   86  70  79  66 /  70  80  80  20
Searcy AR         89  71  82  66 /  50  80  90  30
Stuttgart AR      89  74  83  69 /  30  70  80  30

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...70