406
FXUS64 KLZK 030528 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1228 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Substantial heat stress conditions will prevail during this forecast
period.

Latest satellite and surface observations indicate scattered CU
across southwest sections of the state, with clear conditions
elsewhere. Heat index values above 100 were noted in the
southwest portions of the forecast area, as well as along the
Arkansas River Valley near and to the west of Little Rock.

Conditions promoting dangerous heat stress conditions will be in
place through the period, as low level moisture increases slightly
area wide.  Also, well above normal overnight low temperatures will
occur, adding to the dangerous heat stress conditions.

A cold front will approach the Arkansas, Missouri border Wednesday
afternoon, and will promote scattered thunderstorm development.
Damaging wind gusts will be possible with the strongest storms, the
greatest chances of which will be across northern sections of the
forecast area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

A lot of changes are in store for the forecast area during the
extended term.

The upper level ridge dominating the area during the short term will
be replaced by a mean trof across the midsection of the country. A
cold front will start to push into the area, and showers and
thunderstorms chances will increase significantly.

Slightly cooler and drier air will filter in behind the front,
keeping temperatures more moderated during the remainder of the
term. The front will likely stall out in the vicinity of the AR/LA
border for several days.

Now here comes the big "if" in the forecast. Some models are
bringing the remnants of Beryl (either as a tropical storm or a
lower end hurricane) into south Texas...and bring it up into the TX
Hill Country / North Texas region over the course of several days.
Models are showing the stationary boundary over the AR/LA border
moving north and interacting with deep moisture streaming off the
remnants of Beryl.

At the moment - and at this range - this is still a very low
confidence event, but we will have to keep a careful watch on how
this all plays out. Because under these circumstances, not only
would this bring significant rainfall and flooding to TX, but to AR
as well.

This is still a week away and an awful lot can and will change
between now and then - but we always need to be mindful about the
potential interaction of a land-falling tropical cyclone in the
general region and any potential interaction with a slow-moving or
quasi-stationary boundary.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

VFR condns are expected to persist thru the PD, w/ winds settling
out overnight Tues night. Main story on Wed wl be development of
TS acrs Nrn AR along an advancing cdfrnt, though confidence on
covg remains low attm. Kept mentions of VCTS at Nrn terminals w/
this set of TAFs, and additional refinement of convective activity
is expected. Otherwise, area-wide Srly winds should resume on Wed
aftn.

/72/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     98  76  97  74 /  30  10  30  50
Camden AR         99  77  98  76 /  10   0  10  20
Harrison AR       96  73  96  70 /  50  20  30  50
Hot Springs AR    99  77  98  75 /  10   0  10  30
Little Rock   AR  99  80  98  79 /  20  10  20  30
Monticello AR     99  79  96  79 /  10   0  30  20
Mount Ida AR      98  76  97  73 /  10   0  10  30
Mountain Home AR  96  73  96  71 /  60  20  40  50
Newport AR        98  77  96  75 /  20  10  30  50
Pine Bluff AR     99  78  97  77 /  10   0  20  30
Russellville AR   99  77  98  75 /  20  10  20  40
Searcy AR         98  76  97  75 /  20  10  30  40
Stuttgart AR      97  79  95  78 /  10   0  20  30

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this
evening for ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-
053>057-062>069-113-121>123-130-137-138-212-213-230-238-313.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening
for ARZ052-103-112-140-141-203-221>223-237-240-241-340-341.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...72