391
FXUS64 KLZK 060743
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
243 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 231 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Mid and high clouds were streaming across AR early on this Saturday
morning. Temperatures were starting out in the upper 60s (Nrn AR) to
around 80s (Srn AR). Dew point temperatures varied from lower 60s
(Nrn AR) to mid and upper 70s (Srn AR) and this difference was
mainly due to dry air advection in the wake of a frontal passage.

Drier air currently located over Nrn AR is anticipated to advect
further into Srn AR through the day today. Skies should remain
partly to mostly cloudy with the exception of Nrn AR, where mostly
sunny conditions are expected. High temperatures will be cooler than
previous days with readings topping out in the upper 80s to lower
90s this afternoon. Tonight, lows should mainly be in the mid 60s to
lower 70s.

Heading in Sunday, changes will begin to take place synoptically.
Aloft, an upper trough is expected to drop Swrd out of the Upper
Plains into the Cntrl Plains between two upper ridges. The first
upper ridge should be located invof CA while the second upper
ridge broadly covers the Wrn Atlantic. The movement and placement of
these ridges will dictate how the trough over the plains state
evolves over the next several days, more on this will be mentioned
in the long term. Winds will gradually back from an Erly
component to SE, then S on Sunday as a warm, moist, and unstable
airmass moves back into region. High temperatures on Sunday are
expected to be a couple to few degrees warmer than today with
readings in the lower to mid 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 231 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Flow aloft will be from the SW over AR at the start of the long term
period...with a trough stretching from the NRN MS River Valley
region SW to the SRN Rockies. Beryl will be nearing the SRN/Central
TX Golf Coast Mon morning as well...which will eventually lift north
and NE towards AR. Guidance and official NHC forecast tracks have
the center of what remains of Beryl moving over AR sometime late Tue
into Wed...then lifting NE of the area in the SW flow aloft by later
in the week. This will become the primary forecast concern in the
long term forecast.

Initially...chances for convection will be increasing early in the
long term on Mon...mainly from a shortwave lifting NE in the SW flow
aloft. However...as Beryl approaches late Tue into Wed...more
chances for convection are expected as the remnants of Beryl pass
overhead. As Beryl exits to the NE later in the week...chances for
convection will decrease. However...some chances for convection will
remain in the forecast Thu and Fri afternoons as some lingering
upper level energy will remain over AR. This late week precip
potential will be more of the summer-time afternoon convection
variety.

With the remnants of Beryl passing over AR...there will be an
increased threat for some heavy rainfall with a weakening tropical
system passing overhead. Several inches of rainfall look
possible...and subsequent forecasts will likely consider some Flash
Flood headlines as this period gets closer in time. The window of
opportunity for the heaviest rain will likely be Tue into Wed...with
2 to around 5 inches possible. Exact placement...timing...and
magnitude of the heaviest rainfall will need to be refined in the
coming days as the remnants of Beryl get closer to AR.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

VFR conds are expected through the TAF period. Mid/high clouds
will be noted at most terminals. Winds will be out of the E at
around 10 kts or less on Sat.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     90  68  93  71 /   0   0   0  20
Camden AR         92  70  93  73 /  10  10  30  20
Harrison AR       88  66  92  68 /   0   0  10  30
Hot Springs AR    93  70  95  73 /   0   0  10  30
Little Rock   AR  91  71  94  76 /   0   0  10  30
Monticello AR     91  73  92  75 /  10  10  30  20
Mount Ida AR      91  67  93  70 /   0   0  10  40
Mountain Home AR  88  66  92  69 /   0   0   0  30
Newport AR        90  68  92  73 /   0   0   0  20
Pine Bluff AR     90  70  92  74 /   0   0  10  20
Russellville AR   92  70  93  72 /   0   0  10  30
Searcy AR         90  68  93  72 /   0   0  10  20
Stuttgart AR      89  71  91  75 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....62
AVIATION...70