090
FXUS64 KLZK 070606
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
106 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 134 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Early afternoon visible satellite and surface observational data
showed a stalled out and thermally diffuse frontal boundary just
south of the Arkansas border with Louisiana extending west into
North Texas and then northeast approximately up the Mississippi
River. While the drier air has left many an Arkansan ebullient
this weekend, all good things must come to an end, and summer in
Arkansas is rarely characterized by dry air. As for the cause for
change in this instance it appears to be what most weather
enthusiasts have their eyes on recently, tropical cyclone Beryl.
As Beryl barrels northwards to the Texas coast, it will cause an
increase in southerly flow and moisture transport from the Gulf of
Mexico north into east Texas and Louisiana. This will result in a
push of tropical moisture northwards, nudging the diffuse moisture
boundary north towards southern Arkansas. This boundary movement
is expected to occur as early as Sunday, but tropical moisture is
not expected to return across all of Arkansas until Beryl has
moved inland sometime on Monday.

As the boundary moves north, the chance for scattered showers and
thunderstorms will move in concert. For Sunday, confidence in the
boundary moving north into south Arkansas is low, so only have
20-30 POP in there during the daylight hours. From Sunday night
into Monday, those rain chances increase in magnitude and coverage
as tropical moisture returns across the entire state by lunchtime
Monday. Showers and storms will be a possibility for most areas
during this time, but it`s not looking like a continual rain out
or anything. Just periods of rain and storms followed by some
clearing. More persistent rainfall is expected as Beryl continues
to move farther inland and deflects to the east towards the
Arklatex area on Tuesday.

Beryl is expected to slow down quite a bit as it approaches the
Arklatex area and we should start experiencing heavy bands of
tropical showers and perhaps isolated thunderstorms across the
state beginning Tuesday morning and increasing in persistence and
intensity through early Wednesday morning. Tropical moisture will
be shunted off to the east by Beryl`s remnant wind field by
Wednesday late morning. The Winfield will be most pronounced over
Arkansas from Tuesday through the day on Wednesday as we will
continue to see some enhanced winds even after the tropical
moisture and rain has pushed off to the east. In terms of the
magnitude of the winds, 10-15 mph sustained winds and some high
gusts are what we are generally expecting. Outside of winds being
slightly stronger than normal, no wind impacts are expected across
the state. However widespread heavy rain could at least lead to
some localized flooding, perhaps necessitating a flood watch
before the tropical rains arrive on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Overall anywhere from 2-6 inches of rain are possible across the
state. The heaviest rains are currently forecast to fall from
central Arkansas to points immediately west and north. 3-5 inches
of rain is most likely in this corridor with isolated totals up to
6" possible. Two inch totals are more likely across far northwest
and most of southeast Arkansas. Of course, it`s important not to
hang everything on this forecast right now as the heaviest rain
corridor is ultimately dependent on when and where Beryl makes
landfall along the Texas coast. Once we know that, confidence will
increase on the exact path of heaviest rains across Arkansas.
However, assuming rainfall peaks out somewhere in the 4-6"
widespread flooding and flooding impacts are not expected. So far
rainfall totals this summer have been below normal, but vegetation
remains largely healthy. Between a receptive soil and vegetation
just looking for a drink, the ground can, theoretically, take a
decent amount of rainfall before significant runoff and flooding
is realized.

Cavanaugh

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 134 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Post Beryl, the forecast drys out once again as breezy northerly
winds bring a drier continental airmass across Arkansas. As a
result the end of the upcoming week looks like it will recapture
some of the ebullience of the past couple of days until we begin
to heat up again headed into next weekend. Moisture will slowly
increase across the state by next Sunday, returning us to our
normal Arkansan summer heat and humidity.

Cavanaugh

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

VFR conds are expected to prevail through the TAF period thanks
to high pressure remaining in control across the region. Today, a
warm front will begin to lift Nwrd across Srn sections of state,
thus the mention of SHRA within PROB30 groups late in the period
at KPBF and KLLQ. TSRA will possible over far NW AR towards the
end of the period. Winds on Sunday will E/SE at around 10 kts or
less.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     93  72  90  70 /   0  10  60  50
Camden AR         94  74  92  70 /  20  10  50  50
Harrison AR       92  68  84  67 /   0  20  70  40
Hot Springs AR    95  74  90  69 /  10  20  60  50
Little Rock   AR  95  77  91  74 /  10  10  50  50
Monticello AR     94  76  93  73 /  30  10  50  50
Mount Ida AR      93  70  88  67 /  10  20  60  50
Mountain Home AR  92  69  86  69 /   0  20  70  50
Newport AR        93  73  91  72 /   0  10  50  50
Pine Bluff AR     94  75  92  72 /  10  10  40  50
Russellville AR   94  73  88  70 /   0  20  60  50
Searcy AR         94  72  91  71 /   0  10  60  50
Stuttgart AR      92  76  91  74 /  10  10  40  50

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...66
LONG TERM....66
AVIATION...70