Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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500 FXUS64 KLZK 011724 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1224 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday Night) Issued at 333 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Sfc high pressure was recently analyzed over the Great Lakes region, w/ the greater extent of N/Erly flow positioned over the lower OH River Valley and portions of Nrn to N/Ern AR. Local sfc obs indicated sfc dewpoints had dropped nearly 10 degrees in the past few hours, indicating drier air is on the way, w/ the leading edge of the of sub-70F isodrosotherm extending fm Marion Co, S/Ewrd towards Stone and Jackson Co`s, and Ewrd to Memphis. Thru the day today, expect N/Erly sfc winds to persist, and dry air advection to cont, w/ sub-70F dewpoints extending over the greater N/Ern half of the state. Slightly cooler air temps wl also be noted, w/ aftn readings in the mid to upper 80s for most areas, while Wrn to S/Wrn and Srn AR wl still see near-normal temps in the low 90s. The good news is, aftn heat index values should stay subdued and below headline levels, for at least today. Some higher chc PoPs wl still be seen acrs Wrn to S/Wrn AR thru this aftn, where synoptic subsidence via the sfc high pressure becomes weaker, though expect mainly isolated/diurnal convective activity. Tues, as Great Lakes sfc high pressure drifts E/wrd, and Cntrl Plains sfc low pressure begins to deepen, Srly sfc flow is expected to resume. Temps and humidity/moisture levels wl be incrsg yet again, lkly necessitating the need for heat headlines again for portions of the FA on Tues aftn. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 333 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 The period will begin with a ridge of high pressure over the southern United States. Heat will return to Arkansas, with above average temperatures Wednesday/Thursday, and afternoon heat index values from 100 to 110 degrees and in some cases a little higher. Heat headlines will likely be required. There will also be little to no rain. And just when you thought this oppressive story was going to continue, the plot suddenly changes. The remainder of the period will feature a trough carving itself over the middle of the country, with ridging remaining over the southwest United States and also the southeast. A cold front will ride a west/northwest flow aloft into the region Thursday night/Friday. The front will be accompanied by scattered showers/thunderstorms, followed by slightly cooler/drier and more seasonal air. It appears the front will wash out in or just south of the area this weekend. Any precipitation will become more spotty. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Isolated MVFR ceilings are expected to clear by 20z. A light southeast surface flow will prevail during this period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 63 92 73 97 / 0 0 0 10 Camden AR 69 98 75 100 / 0 0 0 10 Harrison AR 65 94 74 97 / 0 0 0 30 Hot Springs AR 69 97 75 99 / 0 0 0 10 Little Rock AR 69 95 77 99 / 0 0 0 10 Monticello AR 69 96 77 99 / 0 0 0 10 Mount Ida AR 68 95 73 98 / 10 10 0 10 Mountain Home AR 64 93 73 96 / 0 0 0 30 Newport AR 63 92 73 97 / 0 0 0 10 Pine Bluff AR 67 95 75 98 / 0 0 0 10 Russellville AR 69 95 76 99 / 0 0 0 10 Searcy AR 64 93 73 98 / 0 0 0 10 Stuttgart AR 67 92 76 97 / 0 0 0 10 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...55 LONG TERM....46 AVIATION...55