Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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913 FXUS64 KLZK 040545 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1245 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 231 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 The ridge of high pressure across the area is being flattened by a trof moving thru the midsection of the country. The ridge will hold thru tomorrow, but will eventually give way to lower heights on Friday, when a mean trof takes hold of the area. Very hot and humid conditions will continue again tomorrow. Forecast afternoon maximum heat indices were trending a bit higher in a few areas, so I expanded it to include the rest of the AR River Valley tomorrow, and in the NE I added Fulton and Izard Counties to the mix. Everything will change on Friday as the trof takes hold, and a cold front will begin moving into the state. Showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous Thursday night into Friday, and will drop high temperatures down into the 80`s behind the front. && .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through next Wednesday) Issued at 231 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Changes in the pattern will be seen across the state and region through the long term portion of the forecast. For most, these changes will be well received. H500 ridging will persist across the western US with troughing noted across the central and eastern parts of the country. This setup will be favorable for some relief from the heat as well as occasional rainfall chances as disturbances pass through the W/NW flow. Dry conditions will be seen for much of the state on Saturday as sfc ridging briefly holds over the area. From Sun-Mon a cold front will approach from the NW and rain chances will increase as it moves into the state. Temperatures will be cooler as the front lingers near the state and some rain chances will remain in the forecast through Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Mainly VFR conds are expected through the TAF period at most locations. Could be some FG near KADF where the dew point depression was zero. Any FG that develops should dissipate shortly after daylight. Winds should be out of the S/SW on Thurs with speeds between 10 and 15 kts. PROB30 groups were introduced over Nrn sites late in the period with the approach of a cold front and associated SHRA/TSRA activity. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 96 72 90 66 / 40 50 30 10 Camden AR 97 75 95 70 / 20 20 50 20 Harrison AR 94 69 86 62 / 40 50 10 0 Hot Springs AR 98 75 93 70 / 30 40 40 10 Little Rock AR 98 77 94 71 / 30 40 40 10 Monticello AR 97 78 94 71 / 30 20 70 30 Mount Ida AR 97 72 90 66 / 20 40 40 10 Mountain Home AR 94 70 86 64 / 50 60 10 0 Newport AR 96 75 89 67 / 40 50 30 10 Pine Bluff AR 97 77 93 70 / 30 30 50 20 Russellville AR 98 75 91 68 / 30 50 30 10 Searcy AR 97 74 91 67 / 40 40 40 10 Stuttgart AR 96 78 91 71 / 30 30 50 10 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ004-005-014-024-052-103-112-113-123-137-140-141-203-212- 213-221>223-237-240-241-313-340-341. Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ006>008-015>017-025-031>034-039-042>047-053>057- 062>069-121-122-130-138-230-238. && $$ SHORT TERM...53 LONG TERM....67 AVIATION...70