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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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972 FXUS64 KLZK 042345 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 645 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 159 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 To begin the period, hot and humid conditions will continue ahead of a cold front that is expected to move into the state later this evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the state this afternoon and evening. The best chance for strong to severe thunderstorms will be across northern Arkansas. Currently, storms are beginning to fire off across parts of northeastern and central Arkansas...this trend will continue through this evening and tonight. PoPs are expected to become more widespread later this evening as the cold front moves into the state. Drier and somewhat "cooler" conditions are expected Saturday as the cold front moves south of the state. While temperatures are still expected to be hot...humidity values will be lowered through at least the weekend. As mentioned above, the warmest day of the period will be this afternoon as high temperatures rise into the mid to upper 90s with heat index values getting into the heat advisory/excessive heat warning criteria. By Friday and Saturday afternoons, high temperatures will likely drop into the mid 80s to lower 90s. Overnight low temperatures are expected to drop into the lower 60s to lower 70s by Saturday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through next Thursday) Issued at 159 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Large scale troughing will overtake most areas east of the Rockies in the long term portion of the forecast, with ridging remaining along the Gulf Coast and the western states. This will keep us out of the excessive heat business, and there will be better chances of rain. With sfc ridging to the northeast, rain chances will be in the forecast on Sunday across all but northeastern parts of the state. Sunday also appears to be the hottest day during the period. Heading into early next week, another cold front will arrive from the Plains on Monday. The front will likely come to a halt and may wash out somewhere over the central or southern counties. At the same time, the remnants of Beryl will be well to our south, and moisture surrounding the system may come into play locally. Have hit/miss thunderstorms mentioned Monday through Wednesday, especially during the afternoon/early evening. In addition to some much needed rain, temperatures will remain close to normal/not so hot. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 640 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Wl cont to see a few showers/storms acrs the FA early this evening, with most activity not expected to impact fcst sites other than lingering outflow bndry/s. Additional convection wl work into north AR later this evening into the overnight hrs. The activity will eventually working into central and south sections late tngt into Fr mrng. VFR conds wl prevail for the most part, with lower flight conds where heavier storms occur. && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069- 113-121>123-130-138-212-213-230-238. Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ103-112-137-140- 141-203-221>223-237-240-241-313-340-341. && $$ SHORT TERM...73 LONG TERM....67 AVIATION...44