863
FXUS64 KLZK 051139
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
639 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 411 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Regional WSR-88D radars depicted showers and thunderstorms ongoing
across portions of Cntrl, Ern, into much of Nrn AR early this Friday
morning. Analyzing the surface map, a cold front extended from an
area of low pressure over Srn MN, stretching back to the SW invof
KS/MO/AR/OK borders into Cntrl portions of OK.

This cold front is progged to sweep across the state today bringing
chances for showers and thunderstorms to a larger portion of AR
along and ahead of the boundary. Activity will be most pronounced
over NWrn AR this morning, pushing into Cntrl AR later this
morning becoming widely scattered coverage, and into Srn AR by
this afternoon with activity redeveloping due to daytime heating.
Not all locations are expected to see rainfall but the PoPs are
there to cover the spotty nature of precipitation. Temperatures
will be kept in check thanks to increased cloud cover and
scattered rainfall with most locations topping out in the mid 80s
N to mid 90s over far S AR.

Ahead of the cold front, some diurnal warming from lack of cloud
cover in conjunction with higher dew points may result in a few to
several hour window of heat index values reaching or slightly
exceeding 105 degrees, thus the issuance of a heat advisory across
the three SE-most counties in the LZK CWA. Eventually, clouds and
precipitation are anticipated to build into this region, bringing
relief and cooler conditions.

By Friday evening into Friday night, winds will switch to the N at
all locations with the passage of the front. Cooler and drier air
will advect into the region into Saturday. Surface high pressure
will settle into the state bringing quiet conditions to end the
short term.

Temperatures on Saturday should be in the upper 80s to lower 90s
with dew points in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Overnight lows Friday
and Saturday nights should be in the lower 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 411 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Large scale troughing will be noted in most areas east of the
Rockies in the extended period, with significant ridging in the
western United States and some ridging over the southeast states.
This will keep us out of the excessive heat business, and there will
be better chances of rain.

The period will begin with a boundary lifting northward into
Arkansas from the Gulf Coast on Sunday. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected in the afternoon in all but
the northeast. A west/northwest flow aloft will drive a cold front
into the region from the Plains on Monday. The front will likely
stall across the central/southern counties, with hit/miss
precipitation surrounding the front for several days.

Complicating matters will be the remnants of tropical system Beryl.
Initially, the system will be well to our south in Texas, but some
data has it heading toward us. Should this happen, tropical moisture
would come into play. Chances of rain would increase, along with the
potential of heavier downpours/flash flooding. Data is suggesting an
arrival by Wednesday/Thursday, and will monitor this closely.

As far as temperatures, readings will be at/slightly blow average
through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

MVFR/IFR conds are expected near TSRA/SHRA, otherwise mainly VFR
conds should prevail. TSRA/SHRA will move from NW to SE along and
ahead of a cold front. Conds will improve in the wake of the
boundary with clouds gradually dissipating. Winds will switch from
the S/SW to the N behind the front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     90  67  91  67 /  20   0   0   0
Camden AR         93  69  93  69 /  50  10  10   0
Harrison AR       86  63  89  66 /  10   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    92  70  92  69 /  40   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  92  72  92  72 /  40   0   0   0
Monticello AR     92  72  92  71 /  60  10  10   0
Mount Ida AR      89  67  91  67 /  40   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  87  64  89  67 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        89  68  89  68 /  20   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     91  70  91  70 /  40   0   0   0
Russellville AR   91  69  92  69 /  10   0   0   0
Searcy AR         91  68  91  68 /  20   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      89  71  89  70 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM CDT this afternoon
for ARZ065-068-069.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....46
AVIATION...70