714
FXUS61 KLWX 070106
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
906 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front drifts across through tonight. The front brings
shower and thunderstorm chances east of the I-95 today.
Humidity decreases Sunday in the wake of the front with high
pressure briefly building overhead. Heat, humidity, and daily
thunderstorm chances return for much of next week as the frontal
zone stalls nearby.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The afternoon has come and gone with virtually no precip due to
a stout mid-level cap (as seen on the 00Z sounding). A few
showers/storms could move into the lower Chesapeake Bay waters
late this evening. Otherwise, dry conditions expected overnight.
Given how low the dew points are, the overnight lows were
dropped a few degrees, especially along/west US-15 where better
radiational cooling should drop lows to the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The south and east push of this frontal zone gradually halts
with the system stalling in the vicinity into next week. Given
the nature of the boundary and time of year, this frontal zone
will largely be a dew point gradient. Although a brief reprieve
from the humidity is expected on Sunday, expect the dew points
to ramp back up leading to humid conditions heading into Monday.
The area is largely dry on Sunday before turning wetter on
Monday as weak perturbations aloft interact with this stalled
system. The forecast calls for a chance of showers and
thunderstorms on Monday afternoon and evening, possibly
continuing after dark. Forecast highs generally sit in the low
90s each day, locally pushing to around 95 degrees. While heat
index values stay below the century mark on Sunday, they should
return to around 100 degrees by Monday. How warm the area gets
early next week will depend on how much cloud cover interferes
with the main period of diurnal heating.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
On Tuesday, a large trough is expected over the central CONUS, with
ridging along both coasts. As the upper trough advances east, it`s
also expected to absorb remnants of Beryl. Meanwhile, a surface low
located over the Great Lakes will be draping a cold front south
through the Ohio and Mississippi river valleys. The warm front with
this system is currently forecast to lift through the area
accompanied by a surface trough. These features will act as a focus
for shower and thunderstorm activity on Tuesday.

More widespread rain is expected with the cold front`s arrival on
Wednesday. Depending on how Beryl evolves, this could also coincide
with Beryl`s remnant energy passing overhead. The front could linger
into Thursday, making the most of Beryl`s energy before it departs
and continuing the higher PoPs over the area. PoPs on both Wednesday
and Thursday are 50-60%. For Friday, a second cold front could swing
in from the northwest, but also stall in the area as the trough over
the central CONUS weakens and the Bermuda high strengthens.

Overall, the extended looks to continue a pattern of soggy weather
with fairly persistent southerly flow. There is some "relief" from
highs in the 90s on Thursday, with highs in the 80s, but it likely
won`t feel very relieving with dewpoints and low temperatures
remaining in the low to mid 70s through the duration of the
extended. Even if daytime highs/heat indices don`t reach headline
criteria each day (though they still could) the prolonged period of
muggy conditions with poor overnight recovery poses a heat risk.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions are likely across the terminals this weekend. Winds
shift to north/northwesterly this evening and night as a weak
cold front pushes through.

Expect a return southerly flow by Monday as the boundary returns
back as a warm front before stalling. Increasing opportunities
for showers and thunderstorms could lead to some
afternoon/evening restrictions on Monday.

VFR conditions are expected most of the time Tuesday and
Wednesday, but afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
could bring sub-VFR restrictions to the terminals. Wednesday is
currently expected to have the higher coverage of showers. This
pattern persists into Thursday as well given the frontal zone
nearby.

&&

.MARINE...
South to southwest winds shift to north overnight as a front
sags south through the waters. Northerly winds persist into
Monday before shifting to southerly the second half of the day.
This is in response to the stalled front returning northward as
a warm front. In addition, a convective threat accompanies this
frontal surge which could lead to hazardous marine conditions at
times, especially on Monday afternoon/evening.

Southerly flow is expected both Tuesday and Wednesday and could
increase to SCA criteria in the afternoon and early evening with
southerly channeling.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Generally light southerly to southwesterly flow will result in
elevated tide levels through the weekend. Vulnerable shoreline may
come close to minor flooding during the early morning high tides.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BRO
NEAR TERM...KRR/BRO
SHORT TERM...BRO
LONG TERM...CAS
AVIATION...BRO/CAS
MARINE...KRR/BRO/CAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX