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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
881 FXUS61 KLWX 011848 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 248 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A strong area of high pressure will pass north of the area through Tuesday before drifting offshore by Tuesday night. A warm front will lift north of the area Wednesday. A frontal zone will likely remain north of the area during the second half of the week, with a cold front perhaps approaching over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1026 mb high pressure is located over Michigan this afternoon with an upper level trough axis moving toward the Mid Atlantic coast. Scattered cumulus and gusty winds in excess of 20 mph should subside toward late afternoon as the high builds closer. The center of the surface ridge settles over the northeastern U.S. late tonight into early Tuesday. With clear skies and light to calm winds, favorable radiational cooling conditions will exist. Most of the area will drop into the 50s, while the urban centers and bayshore stay in the 60s. Some upper 40s are possible in the western valleys, and some of the typically colder high elevation valleys could even approach 40. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... The surface high will push toward New England Tuesday, allowing winds to turn to the southeast. Meanwhile mid level heights also begin to rise. Therefore, it will be a slightly warmer day, with highs in the lower to mid 80s. Dew points will remain comfortable in the 50s. A mix of cumulus and cirrus will result in a partly cloudy sky. The upward temperature trend is evident Tuesday night as well, with more areas in the 60s vs. 50s. Further warm advection will occur Wednesday, resulting in high temperatures from the mid 80s to lower 90s, warmest in the valleys west of the Blue Ridge. Dry weather will continue through the day, although dew points may begin nudging into the lower 60s. The subtropical ridge over the southeastern states will begin to be flattened by a series of troughs through the Plains and Canada. This will result in some upstream convection that may reach the mountains Wednesday night in a decaying state. Most locations will remain dry though with increasing mugginess. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The 4th of July holiday will begin a period of active weather across the area through at least the early portion of the weekend. Warm, moist air will arrive by Thursday, with highs getting into the low to mid 90s for most areas east of the Alleghenies. Increasing humidity and a pre-frontal trough may increase chances for convective elements during the afternoon and evening hours. Cloud cover will be abundant throughout the day with breaks here and there. Shower and thunderstorm chances continue through the week and into the weekend. Similar conditions will be felt most of those days until a cold front actually moves through Saturday into Sunday. There may be some increasing instability with this front forcing for the weekend, some storms may be strong to severe. There is still a lot of uncertainty with this timeframe but will be worth monitoring as we head through the week. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... With the exception of CHO, SCT to BKN cumulus and northerly winds gusting to around 20 kt continue this afternoon. Both should be reduced late this afternoon as high pressure over the Great Lakes builds closer. VFR conditions are expected tonight into Tuesday. Light north winds tonight become southeasterly Tuesday. A mix of cumulus and cirrus is expected Tuesday afternoon. A lack of significant weather continues into Wednesday. Any decaying convection will likely remain west of the TAF sites Wednesday night. VFR conditions will mainly be in place Thursday and Friday but there will be showers and thunderstorms around that may impact the terminals and cause sub-VFR ceilings. Winds should remain fairly light heading into the later half of the week. && .MARINE... Small Craft Advisory conditions in northerly post-frontal flow continues this afternoon. However, winds are beginning to trend downward, with advisories expected to drop this evening. High pressure passes to the north Tuesday, with light winds becoming southeasterly. Winds will become more southerly Wednesday as the high moves offshore. Channeling effects may result in advisory conditions along the bay late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. Sub-SCA winds are expected Thursday and Friday with gusts 5 to 15 knots out of the southwest. Cannot rule out an SMW for the waters on either day if any strong thunderstorms cross the area. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Anomalies as low as -1.3 feet are occurring this afternoon in strong northerly flow. However, anomalies as high as 1.1 feet have piled up at the south end of the bay, and these may slosh back northward tonight as winds become light. Further southeasterly to southerly flow during the middle of the week may push some locations toward minor flood stage during the astronomically higher early morning high tides. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for MDZ008. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ530- 531-535-536-538-539. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ532>534-537-540>543. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ADS NEAR TERM...ADS SHORT TERM...ADS LONG TERM...ADM AVIATION...ADS/ADM MARINE...ADS/ADM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ADS