576
FXUS64 KLUB 062327
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
627 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Some notable synoptic scale changes are starting to get underway
across the CONUS this afternoon as the very broad trough axis
extending from Texas into the central Canadian Provinces starts to
move eastward. The UL trough will sharpen as the base begins to
interact and phase with T.C. Beryl. Compared to the cool season,
both will shift eastward slowly, but the trough should prove
interesting for our weather setup. A surface low should begin to
drop ESE out of SERN Colorado through the overnight hours into
tomorrow.

In terms of sensible weather, we`ll see much warmer temperatures
than experienced yesterday though forecast soundings suggest we will
remain sufficiently dry / capped in the lower levels to disallow
storms this afternoon and evening. Of course, it`s possible we
could see one or two storms get going, but this would be the
exception rather than the rule and be confined to areas where low
level moisture pooling is maximized. This morning`s analysis
suggests that the best low level moisture has remained across the
SWRN South Plains, but we`ll have to see how things will evolve as
the afternoon wears on.

Tonight, we`re expecting a quiet weather night with seasonably
normal overnight lows preceding a rapid warm-up to near the century
mark on Sunday.  The blends hint at some low-end POPs up in our NW
which are reflected in the official forecast but confidence is low
that they will materialize. With regard to the heat; no need to fret
as another cold front is anticipated to enter the area probably
making it to our northern row of counties by early afternoon and
clearing the CWFA over the course of 4-6 hours. For many
locations, the front should not provide too much relief from high
temperatures, but perhaps this front, like many, will progress
more rapidly than guidance might suggest. There are some synoptic
scale hints this could occur (primarily the sharpening of the UL
trough and embedded shortwave disturbances embedded in the mean
flow) which could give the cool air a bit more push. Notably in
the NERN zones, storm development in the vicinity of the front, is
anticipated for the afternoon. Naturally, if the front is
realized as more progressive, this would alter storm chances
further southward in turn.

With respect to Sunday storms, current indications suggest a
reasonably moist vertical column with antecedent PW values ~1.5" and
slow storm motions yielding at least some threat for locally heavy
rainfall. One negative factor for the rainfall potential could be
the proximity of T.C. Beryl as it comes ashore. Typically, we do see
strong subsidence well beyond the main cyclone on the outer flank
and this interaction may or may not be handled well in the fcst
guidance. Will we see storms in WTX tomorrow afternoon?
Probably....will they be conducive for heavy rain? It depends on
which system proves most juxtapositionally influential....the
trough over the central CONUS or the warm core low of Beryl.
Current confidence in storms producing heavy rain in the afternoon
period is moderate.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

A cold front remains expected to track southward across the area
Sunday night into Monday. The moist, easterly flow pattern in the
wake of the front along with sufficient upper forcing will bring
showers and thunderstorms to much of the area. Highest rainfall
totals are presently expected across the far SE Panhandle and
northern Rolling Plains with large-scale models ranging from around
1 to 1.5 inches. Locally higher amounts are possible within
thunderstorms, with damaging winds and large hail possible as well,
given the notable inverted-V sounding profiles and drier mid-levels.
Once everything moves out by Monday evening, conditions look to be
much quieter through the end of the week. A building ridge to the
west should keep any moisture from Beryl well east of our area.
Tuesday is expected to stay completely dry, while isolated storms
are possible in the afternoon/evening hours the remainder of the
week, mainly across the western South Plains. After a very rain-
cooled Monday with highs in the 70s and low 80s, temperatures will
increase each day throughout the week, with highs returning to the
mid 90s by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period.
Confidence in thunderstorm chances in the vicinity of KPVW remain
slim. Increasing chances for thunderstorms are expected tomorrow
evening at KCDS.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...12