Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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688 FXUS64 KLUB 021141 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 641 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 333 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 A few showers continue across eastern New Mexico early this morning with an outflow boundary approaching the state line (as of 2 am). While precipitation should diminish by sunrise the outflow boundary will need to be watched as this will be a favored location for afternoon thunderstorm development across our forecast area. Southerly winds will remain breezy today with sustained winds around 15 mph and gusts up to 25 mph. The south southwesterly component of the winds will help temperatures warm today into the upper 90s to near 105 degrees. Fortunately, dewpoints will be low enough to keep the heat index close to the actual temperature so the Heat Advisory for Childress, Cottle, King, and Stonewall counties is still valid as this is where the hottest temperatures are expected. By this afternoon, the capping inversion should erode with tall skinny CAPE present within the plume of better moisture which will run from near Denver City to near Childress and points westward. While overall forcing will be weak enhanced convergence near the decaying outflow boundary should be the main focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon. An additional round of showers and thunderstorms should then enter our area during the evening from eastern New Mexico. The main concern with this activity would be the potential for strong wind gusts due to the well mixed boundary layer and cloud bases near the freezing level. This shower activity may continue to drift east overnight with partly to mostly cloudy skies keeping temperatures once again mainly in the 70s. /WI && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 333 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Wednesday will be fairly similar to Tuesday except it will be a few degrees cooler and precipitation may start earlier in the day. This is due in part to increasing upper-level troughing over the central U.S. which will continue to squeeze the upper-level ridge away from our area over the southeast U.S. while another upper-level ridge expands off the west coast. This will keep a moisture plume located across the South Plains and far southwestern Texas Panhandle. With increasing upper-level lift showers may develop around sunrise and persist through the afternoon when instability is highest. If these morning showers end up being fairly widespread across the South Plains and far southern Texas Panhandle then high temperatures may need to be lowered in future forecasts. As of right now, maintained the blended high temperatures which has 90s on the Caprock and 100-103 degrees east of the escarpment. Thursday will be our last above normal day of temperatures this week thanks to an approaching cold front. However, before it arrives winds will become southwesterly which will help to bump temperatures up a few degrees from Wednesday with high temperatures ranging from the upper 90s to near 104 degrees. The cold front should move into the far southern Texas Panhandle by the evening hours and lift along the front should be sufficient for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development as it sweeps south through Friday morning. Unfortunately, this means a few Fourth of July firework celebrations may be interrupted across the far southern Texas Panhandle into the northern South and Rolling Plains. The front will be south of our area by Friday morning which means a much cooler day is in store with high temperatures in the 80s! The right entrance region of an upper-level jet will be located over the forecast area so additional showers and thunderstorms are possible through the day. The upper-level ridge off the western U.S. will move over northern California on Saturday and remain to our west through early next week transitioning our upper-level flow to northwest flow. This will allow several shortwaves to drop over the forecast area through early next week each bringing additional chances for precipitation. This will also help to keep temperatures from warming too much through the end of the extended period with high temperatures mainly in the upper 80s to mid 90s. /WI && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 637 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through this TAF period. Southerly winds will become breezy by mid morning with sustained winds around 15 kts and gusts to 25 kts. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop late this afternoon and evening near and west of LBB and PVW. These storms will be close to the terminals therefore have introduced a VCTS mention at both sites although prevailing thunderstorms will be possible. Check density altitude. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ026-032-038-044. && $$ SHORT TERM...58 LONG TERM....58 AVIATION...58