Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
362 FXUS64 KLUB 060513 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1213 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 231 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Little overall synoptic scale flow is noted from yesterday and this will largely persist through tomorrow with an H2 jet dipping out of the Pacific Northwest into the central plains thence back into the Canadian Maritimes. Two maxima are indicated....once roughly along the axis of the Great Lakes and another from Yellowstone NP toward Vancouver Island. Only the northwestern feature will have any consequence for our weather. Embedded disturbances in the H5 flow, associated with the jetlet coming our of the Pac NW, will transition ESE along the jet axis and make their way into the central plains on Saturday. Guidance has struggled (with great difficulty) with the evolution of this morning/afternoon`s convective complex making its way out of our eastern zones. Cool and moist outflow winds have reinforced low level capping across the eastern 4/5ths of the CWFA and as such, have slashed POPs to a great extent where we could (in coordination with surrounding offices). While we think that the CWA should remain mostly rain/free this evening, there is the possibility of a MCS moving out of ERN NM toward Saturday morning which may clip our western zones and POPS were maintained in that region for that potential eventuality. How tomorrow pans out will largely depend on how any overnight system evolves (if it does). By in large, confidence in storm chances on Saturday afternoon and evening have decreased somewhat though we`ll have to see what the atmosphere delivers overnight to really get a better handle on it for sure. One other thing to mention....while not included in the official forecast, we could see some patchy fog in the Rolling Plains thanks to the combination of today`s rain, cooler temperatures, moist ground and upslope light winds. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 231 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 The extended forecast generally remains unchanged from the previous. An upper trough and surface cold front is expected to track through the area from north to south Sunday night into Monday. This will bring the highest precipitation chances of the week, with a few thunderstorms potentially becoming marginally severe capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and periods of heavy rainfall. While storm chances diminish for the remainder of the week, the overall pattern with a moist surface ESE flow (aided by Hurricane Beryl) and weak generally NNW flow aloft means they cannot be completely ruled out, particularly over the far SW Texas Panhandle. Near triple-digit highs Sunday will quickly cool into the 80s by Monday and remain in the 80s and low 90s through the end of the week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1210 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Low confidence on whether or not MVFR CIGs will threaten KLBB and KPVW early this morning. Latest guidance continues to trend downward with the lowest CIGs remaining west of the terminals. Due to this, have decided to keep VFR conditions through the period. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM....19 AVIATION...12