303
FXUS63 KLSX 040535
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1235 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon. through
  Thursday morning. A few of the storms could be severe this
  afternoon and early this evening mainly over southeastern
  Missouri and southwestern Illinois, with the main threat being
  damaging wind gusts.

- Showers and thunderstorms through tonight will be capable of locally
  heavy rainfall, leading to a threat of flash flooding. This is
  particularly the case for locations that received rainfall
  Wednesday morning.

- After a lull in showers and thunderstorms late Thursday morning into
  Thursday afternoon, another round of showers and thunderstorms
  is expected Thursday evening. Some thunderstorms will be strong
  to severe, primarily capable of damaging wind gusts and locally
  heavy rainfall.

- The combination of heat and humidity will allow heat index
  values to climb to around 105 degrees over parts of southeast
  Missouri where a Heat Advisory is in effect into early this
  evening.


&&

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Thursday Night)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

A very active stretch of weather is expected over the next 24-36
hours across the CWA. Currently, a cold front has sagged southward
into the CWA from the north, and is roughly draped along the I-70
corridor. South of this front is at least a couple of outflow
boundaries from earlier convection, with agitated cumulus and a
couple of thunderstorms forming along them across portions of
southern Missouri. This convection is forming in an environment
characterized by MLCAPE of 2,500-3,500 and effective bulk shear of
35-40 kts per recent SPC mesoanalysis. This will lead to a threat of
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly south of the
front as weak upper-level divergence via a shortwave moves over the
area, with the better focus for strong to severe storms along and
south of the outflow boundaries over far southeastern Missouri and
southwestern Illinois. The main threat is damaging wind gusts,
though brief instances of hail up to 1" are possible, and this
threat will exist through the early evening before instability
wanes.

The CWA will then see a brief lull in convection later this evening
as the first round of convection dies off and/or moves eastward out
of the area. The low-level jet will then ramp up and nose into the
region, interacting with the front to produce scattered showers and
thunderstorms through the overnight hours across much of the CWA.
Severe weather is not expected with this overnight round, though
convection will be capable of locally heavy rainfall given deep warm
cloud depths and precipitable water of at least 2". With all the
rain that fell across portions of central Missouri, and training
thunderstorms expected this afternoon into tomorrow morning across
southeastern Missouri and southwestern Illinois, a Flood Watch has
been issued for this portion of the area due to the threat of flash
flooding.

As the low level jet weakens and veers tomorrow morning, convection
will gradually come to an end from west to east, kicking off another
lull in rain chances for much of the CWA. Late morning and afternoon
showers and thunderstorms can`t be ruled out for portions of the
area as a subtle shortwave passes overhead, though confidence in
this occurring is low given capping and a lack of instability seen in
deterministic model soundings, as well as a lack of a signal for
convection in the CAMs.

The greatest chance for showers and thunderstorms comes Thursday
evening as another cold front surges into the area. Ahead of this
front late Thursday afternoon and evening, the 12z HREF mean has
approximately 3,000 J/kg of SBCAPE and 30-35 kts of 0-6km bulk shear
over portions of western and central Missouri. Given the
environment, multicellular convection is expected to form along this
front during the late afternoon, eventually congealing into a line
or multiple line segments as it moves east-southeast. Currently,
this convection is expected to remain mainly along and west of the
Mississippi River. The main threats with this convection, especially
with any line segments, is damaging wind gusts. Locally heavy
rainfall is also expected, and given it will likely track over
portions of central Missouri where copious rainfall has occurred
recently, there will be a threat of flash flooding. Also of concern
given the amount of outdoor events for the holiday is frequent
lightning associated with convection during the peak firework
display timeframe. Even if thunderstorms are not severe, they will
pose a threat of lightning to those who are outdoors. Convection and
rain will move out of the area during the early morning hours of
Friday as the cold front sweeps through the region.

Elmore

&&

.LONG TERM...  (Friday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Given the plethora of hazards in the short period, only a brief
synopsis of the extended period will be given. Guidance consensus is
that upper-level troughing will persist over the eastern U.S.
through this portion of the period, leading to high confidence in an
extended stretch of near normal to below normal temperatures. Rain
chances will be confined to shortwaves diving south-southeastward
within the northwesterly flow over the Middle Mississippi Valley.
There is little consensus in the placement and timing of these
shortwaves among guidance, leading to broad-brushed low rain chances
both temporally and spatially starting early next week. However,
plenty of dry time is expected through this portion of the period.

Elmore

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop and affect
COU/JEF/STL/SUS/CPS terminals through 12-15Z with MVFR/IFR
ceilings and visibilities in moderate-heavy rain at times. There
will be a shorter period of time between 11-15Z where this will
happen at UIN. Then this first batch of rain will move out by 15Z
and then the chance for showers and thunderstorms will be low
enough to not mention in any of the TAFS between 15-00Z. Then
chances will increase again after COU/JEF after 00Z and at
STL/SUS/CPS after 03Z. Once again, these storms will have will
have the potential to reduce ceilings and visibilities to MVFR or
IFR and as well as wind gusts over 35 knot and possible hail.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flood Watch through late tonight for Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole
     MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson
     MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds
     MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-
     Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.

IL...Flood Watch through late tonight for Monroe IL-Randolph IL-Saint
     Clair IL-Washington IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX