275
FXUS63 KLSX 060825
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
325 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near to slightly above average temperatures and lower humidity
 are expected today through Sunday.

- The chance of showers and thunderstorms will return by Sunday afternoon
  and continue through Tuesday, with the greatest chances Sunday
  night and Monday.

- High temperatures will hover near normal much of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM... (Through Sunday Night)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Even with a surface ridge overhead today, there is still some
weak cyclonic flow aloft, so could see isolated/scattered cu
develop by this afternoon. Otherwise with mostly sunny skies and
light west to northwest winds, highs will be in the 80s.

In the meantime, an upper level trough will develop and deepen over
the northern/central Plains. So active pattern expected once again
from late Sunday through the work week. A majority of the latest
deterministic models as well as CAMs indicate that an MCS will
develop over eastern NE and slide east tonight, mainly north of the
MO/IA border. Could see remnants of the complex move into northeast
MO towards daybreak on Sunday, but confidence is low at this time,
so kept forecast dry through the morning hours.

As the surface ridge slides off to the east on Sunday, surface flow
will become south to southwesterly once again. This will usher in
increasing moisture/instability as well as WAA. By Sunday afternoon,
a shortwave will round the base of the trough and begin to slide
northeastward along a cold front over the central Plains. Showers
and thunderstorms will develop over eastern KS/western MO,
increasing in coverage and slide east into the region Sunday night.
In the meantime, highs will be a bit warmer, in the upper 80s to low
90s.

Byrd
&&

.LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Even though the upper level trough will continue to slide to the
east through early next week, the latest LREF cluster analysis is
now beginning to indicate some differences among the ensemble
members due to possible influences from the remnants of Tropical
Storm Beryl after it moves on shore over southeastern TX Monday.
For now as the trough moves into the mid-upper MS Valley, will see
several rounds of showers and storms as the cold front moves
through the region exiting by Tuesday night. Trough becomes
stationary over the area through the rest of the work week with
additional chances of showers and storms through Friday. Otherwise,
temperatures will remain near normal through all of next week.

Byrd
&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1041 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the vast majority of
the 06Z TAF cycle. Some patchy shallow fog will be possible at fog
prone terminals overnight and early in the morning, but
confidence is low that this will occur and that it will be
impactful. Otherwise, light winds can be expected, with some
scattered VFR cumulus clouds possible tomorrow afternoon.

BRC
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$
WFO LSX