Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Chicago, IL
Issued by NWS Chicago, IL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
859 FXUS63 KLOT 060134 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 834 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and isolated storms this afternoon, mainly north of I-80. Chance of sprinkles/showers Saturday. - Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms possible on Sunday, highest chance (~30-40%) near and northwest of a Sublette to Antioch line - Unsettled Sunday night-Tuesday afternoon with periodic showers and thunderstorms, highest chance/coverage on Monday. - Seasonable temperatures will continue through next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 834 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 No significant changes to the going forecast this evening. A seasonably-deep upper trough was over the western Great Lakes region this evening, with a few smaller-scale mid-level vorticity maxima rotating through the flow. Most notable of these was exiting southeast WI over Lake Michigan with a corresponding weak surface low pressure reflection. West- northwest flow around the south and southwest periphery of the trough/surface low was producing cool advection into the area, with mid-level cooling noted in comparing ILX/DVN 00Z RAOBs, as well as deepening weak instability depicted in RAP forecast soundings. This has led to an increase in isolated showers from northeast IA/southern WI int far north/northwest IL over the last couple of hours, though sunset and the loss of diurnal warmth in the low levels should allow these to fade in the next 1-2 hours. Until then, a few isolated showers look to be most likely across our western counties, along/west of the I-39 corridor. Most areas however, will remain dry. Breezy west winds still sporadically gusting 20-25 mph in some spots will also diminish with the loss of boundary layer mixing with sunset, allowing temps to settle into the lower 60s in most areas overnight (mid-60s in the core of the Chicago area). Going forecast has all of the above handled nicely, and other than a few obs-based tweaks (most notably to decrease cloud cover a bit this evening), no changes are needed. Ratzer && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 238 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Through Saturday night: Isolated to widely scattered showers will continue this afternoon--primarily north of I-80--as a robust vort max pinwheels across southern Wisconsin. Have pared back lightning chances to the immediate stateline locales where 600-500 mb temperatures are a bit colder. Farther south, these temperatures just look too warm to allow parcels to cool much below -10C. There may be a brief window early this evening about 7-9 pm prior to the diurnal loss of surface-based instability where mid-level temperatures cool sufficiently to allow a slightly better electrification potential. By this point, however, suspect most activity will be on a downward trend with the loss of heating. Otherwise, we increased forecast cloud cover into Saturday morning and afternoon as guidance is mixing into a lingering moist layer above 900 mb. Additionally, a check of forecast soundings shows that, while surface dewpoints may mix out during the day, sufficient CAPE under the lingering 600 mb temperature inversion exists to support the development of late-morning and afternoon sprinkles/showers out of sufficiently deep Cu. Think the lightning threat will remain quite low once again given the warmer temperatures aloft, however. Any lingering activity should diminish through the evening hours. Carlaw Sunday through Friday: On Sunday morning, the remnants of a semi-organized cluster of overnight showers and thunderstorms to the west of the MS River may push into parts of northwest Illinois and Wisconsin. Some potential exists for renewed widely scattered afternoon shower and thunderstorm development as a weakly capped airmass destabilizes. However, this would be most favored to occur well to the northwest of I-55 in the vicinity of any remnant outflow boundaries. As noted in the key messages, the highest chances/potential convective coverage are forecast near and northwest of a Sublette to Antioch line through mid afternoon. Rising heights and an overall less favorable thermodynamic environment farther to the southeast should largely curtail the threat of storms for the southeast half to 2/3 of the CWA. In addition, increasing subsidence should result in a lull in convection overall from the late afternoon through the early to mid evening hours. Highs on Sunday will be well into the 80s for most (locally upper 80s), except perhaps far NW Illinois and also along the Illinois shore due to a shore-hugging lake breeze keeping highs near 80F. The threat and coverage of showers and thunderstorms should increase from northwest to southeast across the area Sunday night through Monday night. This will occur as a slow eastward moving cold front shifts into the area beneath a series of small scale mid-level perturbations streaming over the area in the southwest flow aloft. The highest chances for showers and storms will remain near and northwest of I-55 Sunday night into Monday morning, before chances ramp up farther east and southeast Monday PM into Monday night. The main threat we will have to keep an eye on with these storms is the possibility for some locally heavy rainfall given the potential for some northeastward training along the slow moving cold front and PWATs up to 150% of normal. Into Tuesday morning, the surface cold front should begin to shift east of the area as the main mid-level trough axis makes steady eastward progress into the Western Great Lakes. However, in spite of the early frontal passage, chances for scattered showers and storms will continue into Tuesday as relatively cool mid-level temps under the upper trough shift over a still warm and fairly humid post frontal airmass. Accordingly, we continue to carry 30-50% PoPs. The threat of these showers and storms should come to a quick end later in the afternoon, however, as the trough exits east. For the Wednesday-Friday period, the threat of organized showers and thunderstorms looks to become rather low owing to prevailing mid-upper level height rises, overall parched air aloft, and surface high pressure centered over the northern Great Lakes. We`ll be keeping a close eye on the remnants of Beryl as it moves inland from the TX Gulf Coast mid next week. The last few model cycles (operational models and a majority of ensemble members) have kept the remnants safely south of the local area, though there`s certainly plenty of time for large track changes. Otherwise, expect seasonably mild temperatures in the 80s for much of the upcoming week, with onshore flow Tuesday PM through Friday keeping highs at locations near Lake Michigan roughly in the 75-80F range. KJB/Castro && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 639 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 The primary aviation weather concerns for the 00Z TAF period include: * MVFR cigs expected overnight possibly stretching into Saturday morning * At RFD, a potential for MVFR vsbys overnight in addition to the cigs Westerly winds will continue to gust to around 20 kt through mid evening before subsiding to closer to 10 kt for the rest of tonight. Meanwhile, isolated pockets of non-impactful light rain will continue floating across northern IL through mid evening. Periods of MVFR cigs are looking likely overnight and possibly into Saturday morning. Confidence in MVFR at any given time is currently too shaky to warrant prevailing any such conditions in the TAF, although the 06-10Z timeframe does appear to be the overall fan favorite among model guidance at the Chicago sites and a tad later at the suburban sites. MVFR cigs may very well hang around beyond daybreak, perhaps intermittently, but best guess at this point is predominantly VFR through the morning. At RFD, light ground fog may develop overnight and provide a period of MVFR vsbys in addition to the cig potential. This fog does not look to last long after dawn. Expect NW winds under 10 kt through at least the first half of the day on Saturday. A lake breeze is progged to move onshore during the day, although a great deal of uncertainty exists regarding timing and how far the boundary will protrude inland. Best guess at this point is that the boundary will cross MDW sometime in the mid afternoon, although models appear to be trending closer to early afternoon. The lake breeze looks to cross ORD sometime later in the day, although guidance appears to be trending toward the idea that the boundary may stay just out of ORD`s reach and winds will remain NW through the afternoon. Behind the boundary, expect easterly winds under 10 kt. A synoptic wind shift will eventually turn all sites to easterly later in the evening. Doom && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago