Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
649 FXUS65 KLKN 042035 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 135 PM PDT Thu Jul 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS...A heat dome will continue to build over the region bringing a prolonged impactful heat event to Nevada. Heat impacts are almost certain as valley temperatures reach or exceed 100F for many locales over the weekend before expanding eastward into eastern Nevada early next week. Gusty winds across northeastern Elko county and low humidity will lead to elevated to critical fire weather conditions Saturday. && .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday Night Gradually expanding and strengthening ridge over the western U.S. will promote increasing temperatures across the area through the end of the week. Temperatures will already approach 100F in lower valleys in Humboldt county Friday afternoon. A very dry air mass in place and excellent radiation cooling environment under mostly clear skies will promote 45+ degree diurnal temperature swings both tonight and Friday night with lows in the 50s tonight, warming slightly Friday night but still quite cool and a brief relief to the hotter temperatures ahead. With the ridge positioned to the west of the state, northwest winds during the day are expected Friday with light, terrain drainage winds overnight. .LONG TERM...Saturday through Thursday High pressure continues to build over the Great Basin with hot and dry weather under mostly sunny and clear skies firmly in place thru the period. Northwesterly flow resides over the region Saturday and Sunday with a jet maxima skirting northeast Nevada. This will produce afternoon breezes with the strongest gusts focused across northeast Elko County. Northwest breezes with gusts generally 20 to 30 mph can be expected throughout the region. High pressure will move directly over the forecast area early next week with slightly more modest breezes and gusts likely remaining less than 30mph. Hot weather and a continued warming trend will be the main concern thru the long term period with heat watches and warnings going into effect for portions of the forecast area Saturday, currently remaining valid into the middle of next week. Daytime high temperatures will be near record readings and observations in the low 100s will be noted primarily in Humboldt County Saturday, but become more prevalent and widespread as the period progresses. Overnight lows look to reside in the 50s Saturday night, and will gradually warn thru the period as well. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected through Friday. Light northwest winds this afternoon around 10 knots across central and northern Nevada will diminish as light terrain-driven drainage winds take hold tonight. A few gusts nearing 20 knots are possible at KELY and KTPH. A strengthening upper-level ridge will bring increasing temperatures to many areas leading to increasing density altitude particularly over the weekend into early next week. && .FIRE WEATHER...Light northwest winds of around 10 knots are expected this afternoon and Friday afternoon with light downslope/downvalley winds developing overnight. A weak upper-level disturbance will bring increased winds Saturday across the area with the strongest winds across northeastern Elko county. Winds combined with very low daytime RH will result in critical fire weather conditions across at least the northern portion of fire zone 470 in eastern Elko county. Probability of wind gusts reaching or exceeding 30 mph are highest across northeastern Elko county with values of 50- 60 along mid and upper slopes of ranges. However, relative humidity will be quite low, less than 10%, during the afternoon hours. A prolonged period of single digit RH values during the day and poor overnight recoveries is expected next week but winds will be light. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM Saturday to 10 AM PDT Wednesday Humboldt County. Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening Eastern Elko County. Excessive Heat Watch from Saturday morning through Wednesday morning Northeastern Nye County...Northern Lander County and Northern Eureka County...Northwestern Nye County...Southern Lander County and Southern Eureka County. && $$ 93/92/93/93