Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
125 FXUS65 KLKN 032214 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 314 PM PDT Wed Jul 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS...A building dome of high pressure will keep Nevada under intensifying heat each day through next week. Heat impacts are almost certain including valley temperatures of 100F to 105F beginning over the weekend across the western half of the state. Northwest winds will develop each day across the area but speeds during the afternoons are not expected to exceed 20 mph. && .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday night Elevated fire weather conditions across northeast Nevada will abate winds diminish this evening. A reprieve from temperatures in the 80s and lower 90s today is expected tonight with northeastern NEvada valleys dropping into the 40s with more southern and western valleys remaining in the 50s. Temperatures will ramp up further going into Independence Day with highs primarily in the 90s with lows climbing a bit into the lower 50s to mid 50s for Thursday night. .LONG TERM...Friday through Wednesday High pressure will dominate the western U.S. bringing likely record setting temperatures to much of the west and western Nevada including the Winnemucca area. Temperatures ramp up through the weekend to the upper 90s to lower 100s early next week across the the area. Probability of getting to or above 100F is quite high in portions of west-central Nevada Excessive heat will be unrelenting for much of next week with only a hint of reprieve by the end of next week. Winds will be out of the northwest during the day but remain on the light side through at least Tuesday. A dry southwest flow could make a comeback for Wednesday but confidence is low. Lows will gradually rise through the weekend as well but still provide some relief from the daytime heat dropping into the 50s across northeastern Nevada where heat impacts will be only slightly less but most valleys next week will struggle to fall below 60. Forecast confidence is high with this heat event with limited ensemble spread and little sign of monsoon or Pacific moisture being introduced into the region in the long term. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected through Thursday. A light northwest wind of 10-15 knots this afternoon will diminish tonight with lighter drainage winds taking hold overnight. Northwest winds will return during the day on Thursday but will be 10 knots or less under clear skies. && .FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions with building warmth through this weekend and into next week with strong high pressure building over the Great Basin. Elevated fire weather conditions through this evening with RH values ranging from 5 to 10 percent and wind gusts between 20 and 25 mph, with the strongest gusts being mostly across Humboldt and Elko Counties. Min RHs mostly in the single digits each afternoon across the region through the upcoming week with a 40-50% chance for wind gusts of at least 30 mph each afternoon and evening, with the greatest chance being around 80% Sunday afternoon. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Excessive Heat Watch from Saturday morning through Wednesday morning Humboldt County...Northeastern Nye County...Northern Lander County and Northern Eureka County...Northwestern Nye County...Southern Lander County and Southern Eureka County. && $$ 93/93/93/84