722
FXUS64 KLIX 060459
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1159 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Finally starting to see convection wind down across northwest
portions of the CWA, but storms could still get close to Baton
Rouge over the next few hours. Will continue to monitor, but heavy
rain threat has diminished considerably over the last hour.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 854 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Earlier ZFP update was only to remove the Heat Advisory from the
forecast package. Current thunderstorms over the area are
weakening and moving south and southwest of most of the population
centers. However, becoming concerned about convection to the west
of the area near Alexandria, which doesn`t show much sign of
weakening at this point. With precipitable water values in the 2.4
to 2.6 range, which is pretty much at or above climatologic
maxima, any rainfall is going to be extremely efficient. These
storms should be moving into a less favorable, worked over,
airmass. That being said, it`s getting uncomfortably close to our
western counties/parishes. While CAMs show storms weakening
shortly, we are probably going to have to bump up PoPs in our
western areas in the next 30 minutes or so, as a path of least
regret.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Through the weekend, the forecast area will continue to remain
under the western periphery of a broad upper level ridge axis
dominating the Southeastern CONUS. The result will be a
continuation of very typical Summer conditions across the region
each day. Highs will be near average in the lower 90s and
dewpoints will range from the mid to upper 70s in the afternoon
hours. This will push heat index values to around 105 degrees each
afternoon. The warm and unstable airmass in place will produce
scattered convective activity along pre-existing weak meso-scale
boundaries. This convection will be slow moving and will be fairly
short-lived at generally an hour or less. The highest threat will
be the potential for locally heavy rainfall that could induce
street flooding in poorly drained areas and occasionally gusty
winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday night)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Monday and Tuesday, a plume of deeper tropical moisture will move
into the area, and this will help push PWATS back to over 2.5
inches and support more widespread shower and thunderstorm
activity. Some of the rainfall could be locally heavy at times,
and there will be a risk of street flooding issues in low lying
and poorly drained areas. The increase in convection and cloud
cover will also help to push temperatures down slightly into the
upper 80s and lower 90s, especially on Tuesday when rain chances
will be highest. Dewpoints will remain elevated in the upper 70s
and lower 80s, so overnight lows will remain rather warm. However,
the rainfall and cloud cover will limit help to limit heat impacts
each day. Late morning will likely see the highest apparent
temperatures before convection starts to develop.

Wednesday and Thursday will see a return to more typical July
weather conditions as PWATS fall back to normal and temperatures
warm back into the lower 90s. Scattered late morning and afternoon
convection is expected to fire each day, and this reflected by PoP
of 40 to 50 percent.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

At writing of this discussion, all terminals were VFR, but there
is potential for MVFR to IFR ceilings, especially at KBTR over the
next hour or two, as SHRA/TSRA is on their doorstep. Precipitation
is diminishing, but will carry a TEMPO there until 08z, unless it
dissipates in the next 20 minutes. KMCB has had IFR or lower
conditions around sunrise the last 3 nights, and see little reason
for this to change tonight. Pretty much a persistence forecast for
the most part, with MVFR ceilings developing late night/early
morning. Scattered SHRA/TSRA should develop by around 14z, with
TSRA becoming more prevalent by midday. Instantaneous areal
coverage probably not high enough for TEMPO at this lead time, but
as areal focus becomes more evident on Saturday, we should be able
to narrow down timing. Direct impacts should be IFR or lower
visibilities and MVFR ceilings. Should see most convection
dissipate by 01z Sunday with VFR conditions for the remainder of
the evening beyond that.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 311 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Onshore flow is expected to increase to 15 to 20 knots over the
western waters early next week as Hurricane Beryl moves toward
Texas, and seas of 3 to 5 feet will develop in response. These
winds and seas will quickly decrease by the middle of next week as
high pressure becomes more dominant over the region. Otherwise,
fairly benign conditions are expected across the remainder of the
waters through the entire period as light onshore flow of 5 to 10
knots and seas of 1 to 3 feet persist. Scattered convection will
develop in the early morning hours each day before dissipating by
the early afternoon. The primary concern from any storms will the
the threat of gusty winds and waterspouts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  73  90  74  92 /  50  80  50  60
BTR  78  92  77  93 /  50  90  60  60
ASD  75  92  77  93 /  70  80  50  60
MSY  78  91  80  92 /  50  80  50  60
GPT  76  91  79  91 /  60  80  50  60
PQL  76  92  77  92 /  50  70  50  60

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...PG