590
FXUS64 KLIX 061741
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1241 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

A gentle split flow is occurring over the area this morning from the
interaction between the upper outflow from Beryl and an upper trough
to the north. This along with very high PW values will help storms
get going quite easily around sunrise again today and possibly again
on Sunday. There is not a lot of storm motion today or Sunday so
these storms will develop and decay mostly over the same area they
get started over. Water temps are close to convective temps so there
could be some morning sh/ts that develop today before sunrise but
most activity will be after sunrise today and Sunday. These will be
very efficient heavy rainfall producers and since they will not be
moving much(more propagation than movement), they will have the
potential to drop several inches in a short time which could cause
ponding and flooding in some locations. The numerous sh/ts that will
be around will also help keep temps somewhat lower with the cloud
cover. This is why we will not be issuing a heat advisory for today.
But there will be a few locations that could get heat index readings
up to around 108F during the hottest part of the day, especially if
there is no cloud cover for those locations. The environmental
conditions are also very conducive for waterspout/landspout activity
as well. Although these are not normally strong, they can still
cause issues if caught in them.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Beryl is still moving toward the Texas coast and is fcast to move
inland Monday. The system will then begin to unravel meaning deep
moisture profiles will remain across the area for the next several
days. Models differ with picking this system up in the westerlies
and kicking it to the NE. But regarless of which is right about it,
it leaves our area with the same fcast and that is hot, moist and
rainy. As the system moves north, it will leave a wake trough
somwhere over Louisiana by mid week. This could be as far as western
Miss, but we will need to see if that will occur. But either which
way, it spells the same for the area through much of this upcoming
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

MVFR ceilings currently in place from expanding CU field should
continue to lift to VFR later this afternoon. Although gradient
winds will be light and variable today, outflow boundaries from
storms later today brings the potential for abrupt changes in wind
direction. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will be possibly this
afternoon. Any storms that impact terminals will temporarily drop
visibilities and ceilings into IFR to VLIFR category. Gusty winds
upwards of 30+kts will be possible as well. Quiet and uneventful
conditions after storms dissipate this evening.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 320 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Somewhat higher swell from the south will continue to move through
today. These look to be around 3ft and will be additive to the wind
waves across the gulf and since the winds will be quite weak, this
should be the highest seas out there. This change a bit as Beryl
gets slightly closer to the most western portion of our waters
bringing winds up to around 15-20kt and seas to around 4 to 5ft late
Sunday into Monday. These conditions will stay west of the Miss
River and begin to settle by Tuesday bringing the area back to a
normal southerly wind flow around 10kt for the remainder of the
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  73  91  74  92 /  40  60  10  60
BTR  78  95  78  95 /  40  60  10  70
ASD  77  94  77  94 /  50  60  10  70
MSY  80  94  80  94 /  40  50  10  70
GPT  78  92  79  92 /  50  60  20  60
PQL  76  95  77  95 /  40  50  20  60

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...ME
MARINE...TE