607
FXUS64 KLIX 041744 AAC
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1244 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...NEW AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 404 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Happy 4th of July everyone. As you take part in your hot dog
eating contest and maybe a few burgers along with tasty beverage
to wash it down remember to try and find a few ways to stay cool
today. Luckily conditions should be slightly less oppressive than
yesterday which was less oppressive than the days prior. One other
thing which will help keep the heat down some will be convection.

Today we are already seeing isolated to widely scattered
convection at 8z and these storms appear to be in the middle of
the deeper moist airmass (TPW from GOES16 had 2.35 to 2.45"), in
the instability ridge and lined up with weak LL convergence from
Vermillion Bay to Hattiesburg. Convection will likely begin to
taper off over the interior areas just before sunrise with most of
the inland areas dry through much of the morning. The deeper
moisture and LL convergence will slide very slowly to the
northwest and could spark convection across the northwestern
half/3rd of the CWA around midday/early afternoon but it looks
like storms should real congeal around the river parishes across
the area between BTR, HUM, and MSY. The heaviest rain appears to
be in that area from mid afternoon through 00z and seems like it
will be from the combination of the sea breeze, lake breeze and
even a possible differential heating boundary from the Atchafalaya
Basin. As some locations saw yesterday convection will be VERY
efficient with warm rain processes occurring. This could quickly
lead to locally heavy rain and add up quickly. Again convection
may get started late morning/midday but those initial storms will
be isolated in nature and that would allow most of the area to
heat up with numerous locations seeing the heat index around 109
to 110. The heat advisory that was issued earlier still looks good
and no changes were needed to it.

Tomorrow is more interesting. The ridge that has been giving us this
recent heat wave and steering Beryl towards the Yucatan will
continue to slowly flatten out across the Gulf coast while the
western periphery starts to slowly erode. Mid lvl hghts start to
fall and cool some. Which would increase the convection potential
but even more so looks to be the approach of a front in the
afternoon. The combination of the front, improving mid lvls, very
high moisture content (PWs abv 2.3"), a good bit of instability in
place as we heat up into the lower to mid 90s we could see
widespread showers and thunderstorms along the front. WPC has the
area place under a Marginal Risk and can`t argue about that given
the moisture content in place and likely efficient storms.
Widespread 1 to 3 inches of rain could occur through tomorrow.
/CAB/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 404 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Through the weekend rain chances will remain elevated as that
front on Friday stalls over the area. As for Beryl models have
come into fairly good agreement with it continuing to track to the
WNW across the Yucatan and eventually into Mexico just south of
Brownsville.

The stalled boundary near or along our coasts should provide a nice
focus for additional storms on Saturday and if it hasn`t washed out
by Sunday that will lead to more afternoon storms. Temperatures will
remain on the warm side with highs in the lower 90s with a few mid
90s. The heat index could be borderline Advisory criteria.

Heading into next week the weakness on the west side of the ridge
should allow Beryl to curve more to northwest this weekend and then
north across TX early next week. This will have no impact on our
area and the ridge to our east will start to build in back across
the southeastern CONUS and the north-central and northeast Gulf
coasts. Moisture will still be abundant and daily afternoon
convection can be expected. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

VFR conditions outside of convection. Convection is a bit more
widespread, but timing and confidence are low so went with VCs and
TEMPOS this afternoon. Convection should come to and end for all
terminals by around sunset or so, however, HUM may still have a
shot at shower/convective activity overnight...so continued VCs
there. Otherwise, closer to the coast (the more coastal terminals)
may experience more convection on Friday so went with PROB30 or VC
combo just prior to the end of this cycle. Winds will remain
generally light out of the south or southwest except higher and
more variable in and around thunderstorms. (Frye)

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 404 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

High pressure remains in control across the area and should remain
in place through the remainder of the workweek. Generally benign
conditions will continue through Friday outside of any
thunderstorm. We continue to watch Beryl as it approaches the
Yucatan and then into the southwestern Gulf by Saturday. It still
looks like only very minimal indirect impacts are expected with
slightly higher seas from a building swell due to Beryl. /CAB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  75  91  73  90 /  20  80  40  70
BTR  79  95  78  94 /  20  70  30  80
ASD  78  94  78  93 /  30  70  30  70
MSY  80  94  80  92 /  40  70  20  80
GPT  78  92  78  92 /  30  70  40  70
PQL  78  95  77  95 /  30  70  40  60

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039-
     046>048-056>060-064-065-071-076>090.

GM...None.
MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077-
     083>088.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...CAB