003
FXUS64 KLCH 151725
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1225 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 943 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Another very humid summer day across the forecast area. Upper
level ridging still hanging around the will allow air temperatures
to soar into the mid to upper 90s. Meanwhile, plenty of low level
moisture in place to keep humidity on the high side throughout the
afternoon that will max heat index values to range from 104F to
111F and thus, a Heat Advisory will be in effect through 8 pm
local.

Like the past couple of days, some shower and thunderstorm
activity will develop, mainly in the mid to late afternoon hours,
with max heating and interaction with the sea breeze, that will
likely stay to the south of the I-10 corridor, and also activity
forming with any low level convergence zones along the
Atchafalaya Basin.

With that said, the current forecast is on track and no need to
make changes at this time.

Rua

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Another hot and humid day is anticipated, it must be August! The
ridge aloft will remain in place today, however a slight weakness
in the ridge is located across eastern LA into MS. A ridge at the
surface is centered over the northern gulf with a weak back door
frontal boundary draped from roughly around Vicksburg to Mobile.

With the ridge in place another above normal temp day will occur.
Highs will run around 5 degrees above climo normals for the date.
This combined with our typical humid air mass will produce
apparent temperatures in the 106 to 112 range. As previously
stated, there is a bit of a weakness in the vicinity which may
allow a scattering of afternoon convection, but mainly across the
heart of Acadiana and across the Atchafalaya Basin after peak
heating is reached. Farther west and north and under the stronger
portion of the ridge lesser chances are anticipated, however an
isolated storm along the sea breeze may occur.

Surprise, Friday will be hot again, however rain chances will be
slightly higher, but still mainly across Acadiana as the slight
weakness drifts west. This will allow afternoon storms to affect
more of the area, and depending on timing some areas may not meet
the heat adv criteria of 108 HI.

No real change for Saturday. It will warm and humid again with
scattered storms possible along the sea breeze in the afternoon,
but mainly in Acadiana.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

The extended period continues to be dominated by a broad upper level
ridge extending across much of the southern U.S. This ridge will
keep PoPs very low and limited generally to within a few miles of
the coastline through much of the upcoming week. Guidance continues
to back off the weak frontal passage that was initially anticipated
for the weekend, but is now indicating a similar boundary pushing
through the region late Monday into Tuesday. Obviously, confidence
is low on this one now, but should it actually materialize, guidance
does depict dewpoints falling back into the upper 60s to lower 70s
through the middle and latter parts of next week. Even with the
potential fropa, ensembles still don`t paint any appreciable PoPs
with it.

Jones

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

An upper level ridge is helping to suppress most convection this
afternoon. However, a few showers or thunderstorms may develop
during max heating near the sea breeze and also near the
Atchafalaya Basin convergence zone. Therefore, will have VCTS
after 15/20z for terminals KARA/KLFT/KLCH/KBPT. Any activity that
does develop will diminish after sunset.

Away from any convection, VFR conditions will prevail with light
winds.

Rua

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 258 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Weak ridging will remain in place through the weekend. This will
keep light winds and low seas in place.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  98  75  98  76 /  10  10  20   0
LCH  95  78  94  79 /  20  10  40  10
LFT  98  80  96  79 /  30  30  60  10
BPT  96  78  96  78 /  20   0  20   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ027>033-044-045-
     055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ180-201-259>262-
     515-516-615-616.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....66
AVIATION...07