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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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157 FXUS64 KLCH 152031 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 331 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 326 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 The heat is on this afternoon with max heat index readings from reliable observation sites ranging from 104F to 112F. With max heating, a few showers and storms are developing near the sea breeze along the coast and along the Atchafalaya Basin convergence zone. This is where the activity for the remainder of the afternoon will be possible, then slowly diminishing after sunset. With the activity developing during max heating, a few strong cells will be possible with gusty winds, heavy rain, and frequent cloud to ground lightning. For Friday and Saturday, the upper level ridge will retrograde some to the west opening up a weakness aloft where a short wave dropping down from the Northern Plains will be able to move into. However, it does not look like the short wave will be strong enough to push a surface frontal boundary down into the forecast area. Still, with the weakness developing aloft, plenty of Gulf moisture, and daytime heating, a better dose of scattered showers and thunderstorms should be able to develop, especially during max heating times, and over eastern portions of the forecast area, where the weakness aloft will be best. Will hold on to another heat advisory on Friday despite the increase in rain chances, as most of the convection is expected to develop during max heating late in the day, allowing afternoon heat index readings again to reach in the 104F to 112F range. On Saturday, again timing of the convection will dictate the need of a heat advisory or not. At the moment, the convention wisdom is that convection will again be late in the day, allowing heat advisory conditions to be met. Rua && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Wednesday) Issued at 326 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 The upper level ridge is expected to regain control across the forecast area on Sunday. This will limit any convection and rain chances. Instead, very hot and humid conditions can be expected, with even an uptick in the heat index readings as higher low level moisture and dew point air will pool ahead of a stalled frontal boundary just north of the forecast area. Therefore, there is some potential that an excessive heat warning may be needed during the afternoon hours on Sunday. Ridging aloft is expected to hold from early to mid next week. This again will limit any rain chances. As for any heat hazards, that will depend on the stalled frontal boundary to the north and if it can get a push through the forecast area early next week. The deterministic values from the NBM show some lower dew point air by Monday for northern sections, then the entire forecast area on Tuesday that would drop max heat index readings below any advisory criteria. However, this forecast is of a low confidence as the lower afternoon dew point readings and lower night time lows are on the bottom end of ensemble whisker plots. Rua && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 An upper level ridge is helping to suppress most convection this afternoon. However, a few showers or thunderstorms may develop during max heating near the sea breeze and also near the Atchafalaya Basin convergence zone. Therefore, will have VCTS after 15/20z for terminals KARA/KLFT/KLCH/KBPT. Any activity that does develop will diminish after sunset. Away from any convection, VFR conditions will prevail with light winds. Rua && .MARINE... Issued at 326 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 A weak surface high pressure system will remain across the northern Gulf of Mexico through the weekend. This will keep mainly light onshore winds and low seas in the forecast. The upper level ridge will break down briefly on Friday into Saturday, and this may allow for slightly higher shower and thunderstorm activity over the coastal waters, especially east of Intracoastal City. The better chance for showers and thunderstorms over the outer waters will be during the night and early morning, and over the near shore waters during the afternoon into early evening hours. Rua && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 75 99 75 98 / 10 30 0 20 LCH 79 95 78 95 / 10 50 10 40 LFT 80 97 80 98 / 20 60 10 40 BPT 78 96 78 97 / 0 30 0 30 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ027>033-044-045- 055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Friday for LAZ027>033-044- 045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254. TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ180-201-259>262- 515-516-615-616. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Friday for TXZ180-201- 259>262-515-516-615-616. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...07