Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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003 FXUS64 KLCH 151725 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1225 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 943 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Another very humid summer day across the forecast area. Upper level ridging still hanging around the will allow air temperatures to soar into the mid to upper 90s. Meanwhile, plenty of low level moisture in place to keep humidity on the high side throughout the afternoon that will max heat index values to range from 104F to 111F and thus, a Heat Advisory will be in effect through 8 pm local. Like the past couple of days, some shower and thunderstorm activity will develop, mainly in the mid to late afternoon hours, with max heating and interaction with the sea breeze, that will likely stay to the south of the I-10 corridor, and also activity forming with any low level convergence zones along the Atchafalaya Basin. With that said, the current forecast is on track and no need to make changes at this time. Rua && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday night) Issued at 258 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Another hot and humid day is anticipated, it must be August! The ridge aloft will remain in place today, however a slight weakness in the ridge is located across eastern LA into MS. A ridge at the surface is centered over the northern gulf with a weak back door frontal boundary draped from roughly around Vicksburg to Mobile. With the ridge in place another above normal temp day will occur. Highs will run around 5 degrees above climo normals for the date. This combined with our typical humid air mass will produce apparent temperatures in the 106 to 112 range. As previously stated, there is a bit of a weakness in the vicinity which may allow a scattering of afternoon convection, but mainly across the heart of Acadiana and across the Atchafalaya Basin after peak heating is reached. Farther west and north and under the stronger portion of the ridge lesser chances are anticipated, however an isolated storm along the sea breeze may occur. Surprise, Friday will be hot again, however rain chances will be slightly higher, but still mainly across Acadiana as the slight weakness drifts west. This will allow afternoon storms to affect more of the area, and depending on timing some areas may not meet the heat adv criteria of 108 HI. No real change for Saturday. It will warm and humid again with scattered storms possible along the sea breeze in the afternoon, but mainly in Acadiana. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 258 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 The extended period continues to be dominated by a broad upper level ridge extending across much of the southern U.S. This ridge will keep PoPs very low and limited generally to within a few miles of the coastline through much of the upcoming week. Guidance continues to back off the weak frontal passage that was initially anticipated for the weekend, but is now indicating a similar boundary pushing through the region late Monday into Tuesday. Obviously, confidence is low on this one now, but should it actually materialize, guidance does depict dewpoints falling back into the upper 60s to lower 70s through the middle and latter parts of next week. Even with the potential fropa, ensembles still don`t paint any appreciable PoPs with it. Jones && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 An upper level ridge is helping to suppress most convection this afternoon. However, a few showers or thunderstorms may develop during max heating near the sea breeze and also near the Atchafalaya Basin convergence zone. Therefore, will have VCTS after 15/20z for terminals KARA/KLFT/KLCH/KBPT. Any activity that does develop will diminish after sunset. Away from any convection, VFR conditions will prevail with light winds. Rua && .MARINE... Issued at 258 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Weak ridging will remain in place through the weekend. This will keep light winds and low seas in place. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 98 75 98 76 / 10 10 20 0 LCH 95 78 94 79 / 20 10 40 10 LFT 98 80 96 79 / 30 30 60 10 BPT 96 78 96 78 / 20 0 20 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ027>033-044-045- 055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254. TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ180-201-259>262- 515-516-615-616. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....66 AVIATION...07