907
FXUS64 KLCH 100444
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1144 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2024

Mid-afternoon surface analysis shows a stationary boundary draped
offshore from near Galveston, TX to Tallahassee, FL, while aloft a
broad, flat ridge remains anchored over the southern US. Across
the CWA, north of the boundary, light northerly winds have ushered
in a slightly drier airmass today, with dewpoints currently
ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s, while temperatures are
mainly in the lower 90s. Although it is not significantly
cooler/drier today, the slight drop in dewpoints behind the front
has successfully kept us below heat advisory criteria so far
today, which is an improvement from the last several days in my
book. Tonight, temperatures are expected to fall to near seasonal
norms, bottoming out in the mid 70s.

A similar pattern continues through the weekend, as the stalled
boundary meanders offshore for a bit longer and ridging remains
anchored overhead. Temperatures will again top out in the low to
mid 90s tomorrow and Sunday, while dewpoints should mainly range
from the mid 60s to low 70s. Our streak of dry days should
continue as well, with the only exception maybe being parts of St.
Mary and lower St. Martin Parishes which could see some isolated
showers by Sunday afternoon. Otherwise, hot and sunny conditions
continue. By the later half of Sunday, the boundary should begin
to meander back to the north as a warm front, bringing moist Gulf
air back inland and increasing dewpoints once again as we head
into the work week.

17

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Thursday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2024

The mid to upper level ridge expected to to be firmly established
over the region, allowing for continued much above normal
temperatures during the period. Morning low temperatures in the mid
to upper mid 70s north of I-10, near 80/lower 80s I-10 south, with
afternoon highs in the upper 90s to near 100, except lower/mid 90s
along the coast. Maximum heat index values 103 to 108 expected,
possibly higher in some locations. Heat advisories may be needed.

Limited low level moisture, coupled with afternoon heating, will
lead to isolated to possibly scattered afternoon showers and
thunderstorms along the I-10 corridor across Louisiana. Further
north and west, chances expected to be even less.

08/DML

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2024

No change in forecast thinking. VFR to prevail past the end of
the period with light northerly to northeasterly winds.
Stigger/87

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2024

A weak cold front will continue to meander over the northwestern
Gulf of Mexico through the weekend, yielding a light offshore
flow and an occasional scattered shower or thunderstorm. By late
Sunday into early Monday the front will lift back northward, with
a southerly flow set to resume on the coastal waters behind it.
Waves will be below 3 feet through the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  73  93  70  94 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  76  95  75  94 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  76  97  76  97 /   0   0   0  10
BPT  76  97  75  97 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...87