Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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515 FXUS64 KLCH 100805 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 305 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday night) Issued at 305 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Early morning sfc analysis shows the area under the influence of high pressure centered over the Plains states while our departed cool front is noted beyond the coastal waters. Water vapor imagery shows mid/upper-level ridging lingering in place from the Four Corners esewd to the wrn Gulf region while a weak wave is noted approaching from the nern Gulf. Sfc obs/satellite imagery showed clear skies across the region. Regional 88Ds were PPINE. Similar to yesterday, the main story for today looks to be the warm, but closer to seasonal than recent, temperatures. Combined with lower dewpoints generally in the upper 60s/lower 70s, heat index values are again expected to stay below heat advisory criteria. Under good radiating conditions, look for tonight`s temps to drop to lows mostly in the lower/mid 70s...upper 60s nern zones. For the vast majority of the forecast area, Sunday will be another warm dry day, with temps a couple degrees warmer as post-frontal CAA (is that really what it should be called in August when it`s still in the 90s?) wanes. However, slim rain chances return for the afternoon to the farthest sern areas as the lingering sfc boundary begins backup up toward the coast and the wave over the nrn Gulf closes in on the region. Max heat index values again look to stay below advisory criteria. Monday sees small POPs encroaching the srn 1/2 of the forecast area as the boundary inches inland while the erly wave weakens the ridge. Temperatures continue to warm by a degree or two, while dewpoints are progged to respond to the developing return flow...and a heat advisory may be needed for portions of the area. 25 && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 305 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 The long term period will see the mid/upper-level ridge begin rebuilding across the forecast area. Tuesday will see small rain chances over much of the forecast area as weak capping lingers and moisture continues to improve behind the nwd-bound frontal boundary. Rain chances begin a gradual decrease on Wednesday as the mid/upper-level ridge axis begins building back over the region. Temps/dewpoints will continue a slow climb which should lead to apparent temps again reaching advisory criteria over portions of the forecast area through the end of the period. 25 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1144 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2024 No change in forecast thinking. VFR to prevail past the end of the period with light northerly to northeasterly winds. 87 && .MARINE... Issued at 305 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Mainly light/somewhat variable winds are expected over the coastal waters for the next couple of days with the sfc front meandering over the nwrn Gulf. Thereafter as the front lifts back nwd, a srly flow will return. No headlines are expected on the CWF through the next several days. 25 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 93 69 94 72 / 0 0 0 0 LCH 94 74 94 77 / 0 0 0 0 LFT 98 76 98 78 / 0 0 10 0 BPT 97 75 96 77 / 0 0 0 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...25 LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...87