556
FXUS64 KLCH 101702
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1202 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

Early morning sfc analysis shows the area under the influence of
high pressure centered over the Plains states while our departed
cool front is noted beyond the coastal waters. Water vapor
imagery shows mid/upper-level ridging lingering in place from the
Four Corners esewd to the wrn Gulf region while a weak wave is
noted approaching from the nern Gulf. Sfc obs/satellite imagery
showed clear skies across the region. Regional 88Ds were PPINE.

Similar to yesterday, the main story for today looks to be the
warm, but closer to seasonal than recent, temperatures. Combined
with lower dewpoints generally in the upper 60s/lower 70s, heat
index values are again expected to stay below heat advisory
criteria. Under good radiating conditions, look for tonight`s
temps to drop to lows mostly in the lower/mid 70s...upper 60s nern
zones.

For the vast majority of the forecast area, Sunday will be another
warm dry day, with temps a couple degrees warmer as post-frontal
CAA (is that really what it should be called in August when it`s
still in the 90s?) wanes. However, slim rain chances return for
the afternoon to the farthest sern areas as the lingering sfc
boundary begins backup up toward the coast and the wave over the
nrn Gulf closes in on the region. Max heat index values again look
to stay below advisory criteria.

Monday sees small POPs encroaching the srn 1/2 of the forecast
area as the boundary inches inland while the erly wave weakens the
ridge. Temperatures continue to warm by a degree or two, while dewpoints
are progged to respond to the developing return flow...and a heat
advisory may be needed for portions of the area.

25

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

The long term period will see the mid/upper-level ridge begin
rebuilding across the forecast area. Tuesday will see small rain
chances over much of the forecast area as weak capping lingers and
moisture continues to improve behind the nwd-bound frontal
boundary.

Rain chances begin a gradual decrease on Wednesday as the
mid/upper-level ridge axis begins building back over the region.

Temps/dewpoints will continue a slow climb which should lead to
apparent temps again reaching advisory criteria over portions of
the forecast area through the end of the period.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

Light to moderate NE winds will become light to nearly calm
overnight, before increasing again after sunrise tomorrow. Skies
will remain mainly clear, with a few high clouds possible
overnight. VFR conditions continue to prevail.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 305 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

Mainly light/somewhat variable winds are expected over the coastal
waters for the next couple of days with the sfc front meandering
over the nwrn Gulf. Thereafter as the front lifts back nwd, a srly
flow will return. No headlines are expected on the CWF through the
next several days.

25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  69  94  72  97 /   0   0   0  10
LCH  74  94  77  95 /   0   0   0  20
LFT  76  98  78  98 /   0  10   0  30
BPT  75  96  77  95 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...17