815
FXUS64 KLCH 111703
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1203 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Early morning sfc analysis shows the area under the influence of
high pressure centered over the mid-MS Valley which is maintaining
a light nerly flow over the area. Meanwhile, our old stationary
boundary continues to meander near the coast. Water vapor imagery
shows mid/upper-level ridging lingering in place from the Desert
SW esewd to the wrn Gulf region while a weak wave is noted over
the n-cntl Gulf. Sfc obs/satellite imagery showed clear skies
across the region. Regional 88Ds were PPINE.

Expecting one more dry, warm, less muggy day across the forecast
area today. Wouldn`t be totally shocked to see a shower or two
develop around the Morgan City/Amelia area with heating this
afternoon courtesy of the least capping (per forecast soundings
around that area) along with the weak wave passing just
offshore...but chances look low enough for now to leave out rain
wording for now. Highs today are progged to run a degree or two
warmer than yesterday, but combined with lower dewpoints
generally in the upper 60s/lower 70s, heat index values are again
expected to stay below heat advisory criteria.

Monday sees small POPs encroaching the srn 1/2 of the forecast
area as the boundary inches inland, the erly wave weakens the
ridge and a sea breeze boundary looks to develop. Temperatures
continue to warm by a degree or two, with readings nipping at
triple digits over the nern zones. However despite dewpoints
inching upward as well, max apparent temps stay below advisory
criteria for one more day.

Tuesday looks like a general repeat of Monday, albeit even
warmer/muggier...and a heat advisory may be needed for portions of
the area.

25

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Small afternoon POPs linger through the end of the week as the
ridge axis stays shunted off a bit to the north, with daytime
heating and sea breeze/resultant boundary development being the
main convective drivers.

Temps/dewpoints will continue a slow climb which should lead to
apparent temps again reaching advisory criteria over portions of
the forecast area through the end of the period.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Mostly clear skies along with light and variable winds will
continue area-wide through the period. No deviations from VFR
conditions are expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 335 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Mainly light/somewhat variable winds are expected over the coastal
waters for the next couple of days with the sfc front meandering
over the nwrn Gulf. Thereafter as the front lifts back nwd, a srly
flow will return. No headlines are expected on the CWF through the
next several days.

25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  72  97  75  98 /  10   0   0  10
LCH  76  95  78  95 /   0  20   0  30
LFT  78  99  79  98 /   0  20   0  20
BPT  76  96  78  96 /   0  20   0  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...17