335
FXUS64 KLCH 121522
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1022 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Wx map shows weakening frontal boundary over the region keeping a
fairly weak pressure gradient. Dewpoints have noticeably
increased back to climatological mid 70s for this time of year
along and south of I-10, still in the upper 60s to near 70 across
Inland Southeast Texas and Central Louisiana. Temperatures in the
mid 80s to near 90 now, expected to reach the mid to upper 90s.
Afternoon maximum heat index values expected to range 103-108, the
upper end just shy of Heat Advisory criteria. Radar showing
isolated showers across the coastal waters. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms expected along the I-10 corridor this
afternoon along and south of the old boundary. Ongoing forecast
on track with no updates needed at this time.

08/DML

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

A stalled and diffuse frontal boundary remains along the coast
early this morning. North of the front dewpoints are still in the
mid 70s to upper 60s while coastal areas are in the mid to upper
70s. Aloft a ridge remains centered over Texas.

Today the weak front will gradually lift back north while washing
out. Moisture will once again surge north with dewpoints gradually
increasing, but most notably over the interior locations with not
much change expected along the coast. High temps will climb into
the 90s. This combined with dewpoints in the 70s will produce
apparent temperatures in the 100s. Locations in SE TX may even
bump up to near heat adv criteria for an hour or two this
afternoon. Also with the return of moisture a few showers or
storms may be possible along the sea breeze.

The upper ridge is expected to remain in place Tuesday and
Wednesday suppressing convection, however a isolated to widely
scattered shower may occur along the sea breeze. The main concern
through mid week will be the heat. With the return of higher
dewpoints and remaining upper ridge, apparent temps are forecast
to climb into the 105 to 110 range each afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

During the long term the region will remain stuck in a stagnant
pattern with an upper ridge in place and gulf moisture streaming
across the region. Isolated sea breeze showers may be possible,
but very little cooling is anticipated from this afternoon
convection. Hot and humid conditions are expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)

Scattered showers and thunderstorms along the I-10 corridor of
Louisiana expected. Keeping inherited VCTS at LCH/LFT/ARA, chances
not high enough for TEMPO group of TSRA. Lower chances at BPT/AEX
with no mention of VCTS. Otherwise, light southerly winds around
5-6 kts this afternoon becoming variable 3 kts or less after
00z. VFR expected through the period.

08/DML

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

A weak offshore flow is occurring this morning, however the front
will lift back north this morning. A light onshore flow is then
anticipated for the rest of the period. Isolated shower will be
possible during the early morning hours most days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  97  75  98  75 /  10  10  20   0
LCH  93  78  94  79 /  40  10  40  10
LFT  98  80  98  80 /  40  10  40   0
BPT  95  78  96  78 /  20  10  40   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...08