Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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028 FXUS64 KLCH 130033 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 733 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Wx map shows weakening frontal boundary over the region keeping a fairly weak pressure gradient. Dewpoints have noticeably increased back to climatological mid 70s for this time of year along and south of I-10, still in the upper 60s to near 70 across Inland Southeast Texas and Central Louisiana. Temperatures this afternoon range in the lower to upper 90s, with heat index values in the 103-108 range. May see briefly higher numbers, but will likely be short lived. Radar showing isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the coastal parishes and counties. Expecting some additional development up to the I-10 corridor for the remainder of the afternoon. For tonight, expect most of the convection to dissipate by sunset, with increased shower and thunderstorm chances across the coastal waters. Tuesday morning low temperatures in the mid to upper mid 70s north of I-10, near 80/lower 80s I-10 south. For the remainder of Tuesday through Wednesday night, the mid to upper level ridge will continue to be centered over the region, continuing the above normal temperatures. Afternoon high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s along and south of the I-10 corridor, upper 90s to near 100 further north. Maximum heat index values 108 to 113 expected, possibly higher in some locations. All areas, as well as our neighboring offices, have issued a Heat Advisory through late Tuesday morning through the early evening hours. Wednesday morning low temperatures in the mid to upper mid 70s north of I-10, near 80/lower 80s I-10 south. Later Wednesday morning into the afternoon hours, preliminary forecast numbers will be very similar to Tuesday, and chances for another Heat Advisory across the entire area remain high. Limited low level moisture, coupled with afternoon heating, will yield isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms along the I-10 corridor. Further north, chances expected to be even less with the greater suppression of the mid to upper level ridge. 08/DML && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Sunday) Ridging aloft will remain anchored over the Southern Plains throughout the long term period, while weak surface high pressure will meander around the northern Gulf of Mexico. With little day to day changes in the synoptic pattern expected through the end of the week into the weekend, a rather repetitive hot and dry forecast will persist. Temperature wise, we will continue to see highs in the mid to upper 90s each day, while overnight lows will generally fall into the mid to upper 70s. In addition, heat indices will likely continue to flirt with or exceed heat advisory criteria each day, especially along the I-49 corridor and across lower Acadiana. Otherwise, minimal rain chances are expected to continue, generally around 15-30% each afternoon, with the highest POPs expected across lower Acadiana where the influence of the upper ridge will be slightly less. Any showers that do form will be solely driven by the seabreeze and daytime heating, and will have to overcome the cap in place aloft, which should keep coverage isolated to widely scattered at best. 17 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 733 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 An area of showers and thunderstorms developed offshore and moved into Acadiana this afternoon, signaling the return of southerly flow and diurnal convection. The afternoon 00Z RAOB also reports the return of surface moisture which should allow for some widely scattered, VFR clouds to hang around the region overnight. Tomorrow, expect a somewhat breezy south wind, generally less than 10 knots, a widely scattered VFR cloud deck and afternoon convection along the coastline. Near to storms there should be frequent lightning, variable, turbulent winds and reduced visibility due to heavy rainfall. 11/Calhoun && .MARINE... Light south to southwest winds and low seas expected to continue through the week. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms is expected through much of the week as well, with the best rain chances through the morning hours. 08/DML && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 75 97 75 99 / 10 10 0 10 LCH 79 95 79 94 / 10 30 10 20 LFT 78 98 79 98 / 10 40 10 20 BPT 79 95 79 95 / 10 30 0 20 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ027>033-044- 045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254. TX...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ180-201- 259>262-515-516-615-616. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...11