Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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913 FXUS64 KLCH 130442 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1142 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1010 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Afternoon convection has dissipated with the loss of daytime heat, and residual cirrus clouds continue to thin and scatter this evening per latest IR imagery. The passage of an outflow augmented seabreeze late this afternoon allowed dewpoints to rise to the upper 70s/near 80 degrees while bringing temperatures down a few degrees, making conditions noticeably more humid. Warm and humid conditions will continue overnight with quiet conditions under mostly clear skies. Overnight lows are expected to only reach the middle to upper 70s, with temps around 80 near the coast. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible again Tuesday afternoon as sea and bay breezes become active again. Made some minor adjustments to T/Td this evening to align with recent obs, and to Td on Tuesday primarily in those locations where NBM tends to run a degree or two too high. This lowered apparent temperatures slightly in a few isolated locations but values remain above advisory criteria nonetheless, with max values between 108 and 113 degrees. 24 && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Wx map shows weakening frontal boundary over the region keeping a fairly weak pressure gradient. Dewpoints have noticeably increased back to climatological mid 70s for this time of year along and south of I-10, still in the upper 60s to near 70 across Inland Southeast Texas and Central Louisiana. Temperatures this afternoon range in the lower to upper 90s, with heat index values in the 103-108 range. May see briefly higher numbers, but will likely be short lived. Radar showing isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the coastal parishes and counties. Expecting some additional development up to the I-10 corridor for the remainder of the afternoon. For tonight, expect most of the convection to dissipate by sunset, with increased shower and thunderstorm chances across the coastal waters. Tuesday morning low temperatures in the mid to upper mid 70s north of I-10, near 80/lower 80s I-10 south. For the remainder of Tuesday through Wednesday night, the mid to upper level ridge will continue to be centered over the region, continuing the above normal temperatures. Afternoon high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s along and south of the I-10 corridor, upper 90s to near 100 further north. Maximum heat index values 108 to 113 expected, possibly higher in some locations. All areas, as well as our neighboring offices, have issued a Heat Advisory through late Tuesday morning through the early evening hours. Wednesday morning low temperatures in the mid to upper mid 70s north of I-10, near 80/lower 80s I-10 south. Later Wednesday morning into the afternoon hours, preliminary forecast numbers will be very similar to Tuesday, and chances for another Heat Advisory across the entire area remain high. Limited low level moisture, coupled with afternoon heating, will yield isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms along the I-10 corridor. Further north, chances expected to be even less with the greater suppression of the mid to upper level ridge. 08/DML && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Sunday) Ridging aloft will remain anchored over the Southern Plains throughout the long term period, while weak surface high pressure will meander around the northern Gulf of Mexico. With little day to day changes in the synoptic pattern expected through the end of the week into the weekend, a rather repetitive hot and dry forecast will persist. Temperature wise, we will continue to see highs in the mid to upper 90s each day, while overnight lows will generally fall into the mid to upper 70s. In addition, heat indices will likely continue to flirt with or exceed heat advisory criteria each day, especially along the I-49 corridor and across lower Acadiana. Otherwise, minimal rain chances are expected to continue, generally around 15-30% each afternoon, with the highest POPs expected across lower Acadiana where the influence of the upper ridge will be slightly less. Any showers that do form will be solely driven by the seabreeze and daytime heating, and will have to overcome the cap in place aloft, which should keep coverage isolated to widely scattered at best. 17 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1122 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Latest RAP13 analysis indicates high pressure has expanded from north Texas to the southeast, including much of Louisiana. The only clouds present are those left over from afternoon convection. VFR clouds around 5000 feet were included in overnight TAFs as moisture moved back in this afternoon; overnight radiational cooling should allow for this cloud level to develop. Tuesday, expect a somewhat breezy south wind, generally less than 10 knots, a VFR cloud deck and widely scattered afternoon convection along the coastline. Best chance for convection will be near lower Acadiana where moisture pooling is more likely to take place. Near to storms there should be frequent lightning, variable, turbulent winds and reduced visibility due to heavy rainfall. Convection will come to an end once again after sundown. 11/Calhoun && .MARINE... Light south to southwest winds and low seas expected to continue through the week. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms is expected through much of the week as well, with the best rain chances through the morning hours. 08/DML && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 75 97 75 99 / 10 10 0 10 LCH 79 95 79 94 / 10 30 10 20 LFT 78 98 79 98 / 10 40 10 20 BPT 79 95 79 95 / 10 30 0 20 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ027>033-044- 045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254. TX...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ180-201- 259>262-515-516-615-616. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...11