595
FXUS64 KLCH 111759
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1259 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

-A modest Saharan Air Layer moving around the subtropical ridge
 and into the forecast area on Friday will help to decrease
 convection somewhat especially over SETX.

-Flat upper ridge overhead during the weekend will likely produce
 a typical summertime pattern with scattered afternoon convection
 along with hot and humid conditions.

-The upper ridge will strengthen early next week. This should
 decrease rain chances while increasing the heat. Potential for
 heat advisory criteria as early as Monday into Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Widely isolated convection has begun to develop this afternoon.
The upper trough is lifting northward, but a lingering weakness
aloft will still support some sea breeze and diurnally driven
convection. Aside from slight height rises, Saharan Air Layer
(SAL) advection into the western Gulf Coast will help suppress
convective activity.

This weekend, a weak ridge over the SE Conus and eastern Gulf will
expand westward across the Gulf. PoPs in some models were more
limited compared to the NBM, likely due to the ridges influence.
As a result, PoPs were lowered toward the end of the short term
period.

Reduced convection and cloud cover will allow afternoon highs to
climb back into the low to mid 90s, with heat indices approaching
100F. Regardless of whether advisory criteria are met, heat
precautions should be taken for any prolonged outdoor activity.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Building off the short term, the ridge will exert greater
influence than suggested by the NBM, limiting PoPs at the start of
the long term period. The wet bias in the NBM appears to taper off
by midweek, with only isolated PoPs expected Tuesday and
Wednesday. By the end of the week, the ridge will center over
north central Texas, keeping PoPs suppressed across our TX FA
while increasing over Acadiana.

Temperatures will be largely dictated by cloud and precipitation
coverage or the lack thereof. From early to midweek, a warming
trend is expected as the ridge strengthens. It wouldnt be out of
the question for actual temperatures to approach the triple
digits. Combined with oppressive dew points in the mid to upper
70s, heat indices will likely climb into the 100 to 110F range.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Widely isolated convection is developing this afternoon. Thanks to
the influence of an upper ridge and incoming SAL, shower and
thunderstorm coverage should remain limited. Activity will taper
off this evening, with mostly quiet conditions expected overnight.
While some patchy fog may form, significant aviation impacts are
not anticipated. Any fog that does develop will quickly dissipate
after sunrise.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Weak high pressure extending across the northern Gulf will
maintain light southerly flow and low seas through mid next week.
Daily scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue over the
coastal waters through Saturday with lower rain chances Sunday
through mid next week as upper level ridging builds across the
northern gulf.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Steady southerly flow will maintain dewpoints in the mid to upper
70s through next week. Afternoon minimum relative humidity values
are expected to remain above 50 percent. Daily afternoon
thunderstorms will develop Friday and Saturday before an upper
level ridge builds into the region Sunday through mid next week
resulting in lower than normal rain chances.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  72  94  72  93 /  10  40  10  50
LCH  77  91  77  91 /  10  50  20  60
LFT  75  91  75  90 /  10  50  10  50
BPT  76  90  76  90 /  20  70  30  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...87