058
FXUS64 KLCH 131519
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1019 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Wx map shows weak surface high pressure ridge over the Eastern
U.S. and Gulf, keeping light south to southwest winds across the
region. Temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s already, with
dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s, giving heat index values in the
100-105 already. Afternoon highs in the mid to upper 90s along
and south of the I-10 corridor, upper 90s to near 100 further
north. Maximum heat index values 108 to 113 expected, possibly
higher in some locations. All areas, as well as our neighboring
offices, have issued a Heat Advisory through the early evening
hours. Ongoing forecast on track with no updates needed at this
time.

08/DML

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

A ridge in the mid and upper levels will continue to dominate the
area`s weather through the short term. While the ridge is not
directly overhead for today scattered showers and storms will be
possible along the sea breeze with lesser chances farther inland.
Isolated diurnal storms will be possible in Cen LA and the SE TX
lakes region. High temps that are running around 5 degrees above
normal for the date will combine with the typically high August
humidity to produce apparent temps in the 105 to 110 range.

The ridge will move closer through mid week with afternoon
convection decreasing from the already meager coverage. Heat
headlines are expected to continue as well with temperatures even
increasing a bit.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

The extended forecast is persistence based one with little day to
day variability through the weekend and early next week. Upper level
ridging over the southern plains will keep diurnal PoPs below climo
normals in the 20-30% range each afternoon along with below normal
cloud cover. This combination will see afternoon highs climbing into
the mid to upper 90s each day with heat indices between 105-110. At
the surface, a weak pressure gradient will yield winds primarily
driven by daily sea breeze development and any outflow boundaries
from the scarce convection.

Jones

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)

Radar shows scattered showers and thunderstorms across the coastal
waters and coastal parishes/counties this morning, expected to
move/form across the I-10 corridor this afternoon. Keeping VCTS at
BPT/LCH/LFT/ARA through the afternoon hours.  Otherwise, light
southerly winds around 5-6 kts this afternoon becoming variable 3
kts or less after 00z. VFR expected through the period.

08/DML

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 319 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Light south to southwest winds and low seas expected to continue
through the week. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
is expected through much of the week as well, with the best rain
chances through the morning hours.

08/05

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  97  75  98  76 /  20  10  10   0
LCH  94  79  95  79 /  50  10  30   0
LFT  98  80  98  79 /  50  20  30   0
BPT  95  78  95  78 /  40  10  20   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ027>033-044-045-
     055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ180-201-259>262-
     515-516-615-616.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...08