Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
456 FXUS64 KLCH 141727 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1227 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon in response to an upper trough. - An upper ridge will build over the region through midweek, lowering precipitation chances while supporting a warming trend. - A surge of tropical moisture late in the week may result in multiple days of heavy rainfall and increased flood potential. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday night) Issued at 1221 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 An upper low remains centered over the northwest gulf while a ridge is centered over Alabama. Between these systems a somewhat divergent patter is over the local area. At the surface a ridge is over the northeast gulf which is keeping the onshore flow in place across LA and SE TX. A weak area of low pressure is east of FL and GA. A few nocturnal showers or storms will continue to driven inland through the early morning hours around the periphery of the ridge. With the lack of ridge aloft, scattered afternoon storms can be anticipated, however with a slightly less coverage as the upper low shifts west and weakens. Temperatures today will be near the climate normal for the date. A heat wave is anticipated Tuesday and Wednesday as the upper ridge over the southeast states shifts west. This will serve to decrease rain chances and increase temps a few degrees. Apparent temperatures across inland may reach the threshold of 108F both Tue and Wed afternoons, however guidance continues to show that this is spotty. Trends will continue to be monitored. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 1221 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 The area of lower pressure east of Florida may be the main focus during the extended. The trough is forecast to move across Florida and the northern gulf through the short term then potentially in the north central gulf coast around Thursday. At a minimum rain chances will increase for the local area as the slug of deep tropical moisture moves in then lingers into or perhaps through the coming weekend. While guidance is a bit split on the eventual evolution of the low pressure area late in the week, guidance does agree that it may be a wet period with the potential for heavy rain. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Scattered, diurnally driven, thunderstorms will continue through the early evening although guidance is indicating most storms will be waning by 22Z. Away from storms, VFR conditions and light southerly winds will prevail through the taf period. Upper level ridging will strengthen over the area tonight into early Tuesday which will limit thunderstorm development Tuesday. Jones && .MARINE... Issued at 1221 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 High pressure extending across the northern Gulf will maintain light onshore winds and low seas through late next week. Daily scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue over the coastal waters through Monday with lower rain chances Tuesday and Wednesday as upper level ridging builds across the northern gulf. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1221 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Light southerly winds will maintain dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s through the week. Afternoon minimum relative humidity values are expected to range from 50 - 70%. Diurnal thunderstorms will develop from late morning through early evening today, however an upper level ridge building into the region will lower daily rain chances Tuesday and Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 73 96 73 97 / 10 10 0 10 LCH 76 92 76 93 / 0 20 0 10 LFT 76 93 75 93 / 10 30 0 30 BPT 75 92 75 93 / 10 20 0 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...66