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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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136 FXUS64 KLCH 161517 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1017 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1015 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Upper air data suggests a slightly weaker upper level ridge over the forecast area today. A little better cu formation was also noted this morning which sometimes will foreshadow more convection during daytime heating. Latest CAMs have backed off on widespread activity this afternoon. However, thinking is that we will see showers and thunderstorms develop late in the day during max heating, mainly near the seabreeze and along the Atchafalaya Basin, with outflows and mesoscale boundaries kicking off additional convection. Therefore, will keep decent chances of pops in the forecast for mid to late afternoon into the evening hours especially over the Atchafalaya Basin, spreading westward along the Highway 190 and I-10 corridor, with activity decreasing as it reaches southeast Texas. Since activity is expected to develop later in the afternoon, high CAPE values may provide the chance for some strong storms with gusty winds and frequent cloud to ground lightning. Before convection begins, expect another hot and very humid day. Air temperatures in the mid to upper 90s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s will produce heat index readings from 106F to 112F and therefore, a Heat Advisory will be in effect. No significant changes to the forecast at this time. Rua && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday night) Issued at 405 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Yet another hot and humid day is anticipated across the region, however rain chances will be a bit higher this afternoon for portions of the area. The ridge aloft remains in place across the southwest states while extending into the northern gulf coast. A short wave will traverse the midwest pushing the eastern periphery of the ridge slightly west today. The slight weakening of the ridge over the local area is expected to allow an increase in showers and storms, but mainly over Acadiana with lesser chances farther north and west (Cen LA and SE TX). Even with the increase in rain chances this afternoon/early evening, temperatures will be near the same values that have occurred over the past few days with afternoon max HIs reaching into the 104 to 112 range. Another heat adv has been issued. A near carbon copy is expected for Saturday, however rain chances will be slightly less. A weak frontal boundary is expected to work into the region late in the weekend into the extended period. Ahead of this boundary moisture will be slightly higher. This combined with high temps into the mid 90s to low 100s may produce the hottest day of the year so far on Sunday with apparent temps near the excessive heat criteria of +113 at some locations. Rain chances on Sunday will also be nearly nil as the ridge builds overhead. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 405 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Amplifying ERN CONUS trof will erode the eastern flank of the mammoth upper ridge centered over the SRN Plains at the start of the period, allowing a weak backdoor CDFNT to sag through the area on MON. While not providing much relief in terms of high temperatures, which are still expected to climb into the mid 90s through the week, the front/deep layer northerly flow will usher in lower dewpoints/humidity and relatively cooler overnight lows, with upper 60s progged across parts of central LA by WED morning. In terms of precipitation chances, saw little reason at this point to deviate from the low-mid range NBM chances, but will have to keep an eye on perturbations rounding the ridge in the NW flow regime. 13 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 601 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Mostly VFR conditions are anticipated through the period, however isolated to scattered thunderstorms may occur this afternoon. Storms may briefly reduce vis and produce gusty winds. Winds will otherwise be generally light and south. && .MARINE... Issued at 405 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 A weak surface high pressure system will remain across the northern Gulf of Mexico through the weekend. This will keep mainly light onshore winds and low seas in the forecast. The upper level ridge will break down briefly on Friday into Saturday, and this may allow for slightly higher shower and thunderstorm activity over the coastal waters, especially east of Intracoastal City. The better chance for showers and thunderstorms over the outer waters will be during the night and early morning, and over the near shore waters during the afternoon into early evening hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 99 75 99 77 / 20 10 10 0 LCH 94 79 95 79 / 40 10 40 0 LFT 97 80 98 80 / 60 10 40 0 BPT 97 79 97 78 / 20 10 20 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ027>033-044-045- 055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254. TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ180-201-259>262- 515-516-615-616. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION...05