136
FXUS64 KLCH 161517
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1017 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1015 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Upper air data suggests a slightly weaker upper level ridge over
the forecast area today. A little better cu formation was also
noted this morning which sometimes will foreshadow more convection
during daytime heating. Latest CAMs have backed off on widespread
activity this afternoon. However, thinking is that we will see
showers and thunderstorms develop late in the day during max
heating, mainly near the seabreeze and along the Atchafalaya
Basin, with outflows and mesoscale boundaries kicking off
additional convection. Therefore, will keep decent chances of pops
in the forecast for mid to late afternoon into the evening hours
especially over the Atchafalaya Basin, spreading westward along
the Highway 190 and I-10 corridor, with activity decreasing as it
reaches southeast Texas. Since activity is expected to develop
later in the afternoon, high CAPE values may provide the chance
for some strong storms with gusty winds and frequent cloud to
ground lightning.

Before convection begins, expect another hot and very humid day.
Air temperatures in the mid to upper 90s with dewpoints in the mid
to upper 70s will produce heat index readings from 106F to 112F
and therefore, a Heat Advisory will be in effect.

No significant changes to the forecast at this time.

Rua

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Yet another hot and humid day is anticipated across the region,
however rain chances will be a bit higher this afternoon for
portions of the area.

The ridge aloft remains in place across the southwest states while
extending into the northern gulf coast. A short wave will traverse
the midwest pushing the eastern periphery of the ridge slightly
west today. The slight weakening of the ridge over the local area
is expected to allow an increase in showers and storms, but mainly
over Acadiana with lesser chances farther north and west (Cen LA
and SE TX). Even with the increase in rain chances this
afternoon/early evening, temperatures will be near the same values
that have occurred over the past few days with afternoon max HIs
reaching into the 104 to 112 range. Another heat adv has been
issued.

A near carbon copy is expected for Saturday, however rain chances
will be slightly less.

A weak frontal boundary is expected to work into the region late
in the weekend into the extended period. Ahead of this boundary
moisture will be slightly higher. This combined with high temps
into the mid 90s to low 100s may produce the hottest day of the
year so far on Sunday with apparent temps near the excessive heat
criteria of +113 at some locations. Rain chances on Sunday will
also be nearly nil as the ridge builds overhead.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Amplifying ERN CONUS trof will erode the eastern flank of the
mammoth upper ridge centered over the SRN Plains at the start of
the period, allowing a weak backdoor CDFNT to sag through the area
on MON. While not providing much relief in terms of high
temperatures, which are still expected to climb into the mid 90s
through the week, the front/deep layer northerly flow will usher in
lower dewpoints/humidity and relatively cooler overnight lows, with
upper 60s progged across parts of central LA by WED morning. In
terms of precipitation chances, saw little reason at this point to
deviate from the low-mid range NBM chances, but will have to keep an
eye on perturbations rounding the ridge in the NW flow regime.

13

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 601 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Mostly VFR conditions are anticipated through the period, however
isolated to scattered thunderstorms may occur this afternoon.
Storms may briefly reduce vis and produce gusty winds. Winds will
otherwise be generally light and south.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 405 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

A weak surface high pressure system will remain across the
northern Gulf of Mexico through the weekend. This will keep mainly
light onshore winds and low seas in the forecast.

The upper level ridge will break down briefly on Friday into
Saturday, and this may allow for slightly higher shower and
thunderstorm activity over the coastal waters, especially east of
Intracoastal City. The better chance for showers and thunderstorms
over the outer waters will be during the night and early morning,
and over the near shore waters during the afternoon into early
evening hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  99  75  99  77 /  20  10  10   0
LCH  94  79  95  79 /  40  10  40   0
LFT  97  80  98  80 /  60  10  40   0
BPT  97  79  97  78 /  20  10  20   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ027>033-044-045-
     055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ180-201-259>262-
     515-516-615-616.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...05