076
FXUS64 KLCH 141449
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
949 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 944 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Looking at no changes to the forecast with the morning update.

Another hot one out there with the upper level ridge in place to
help suppress most convection and allow air temperatures to soar.
Plenty of low level moisture in place to bring about high
humidity to go along with hot temperatures with afternoon max heat
index values in heat advisory criteria.

A few showers or storms will be possible in the mid to late
afternoon mainly near the coast with max heating and any
seabreeze that tries to develop and move inland.

Rua

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Hot and humid conditions are anticipated through the short term.

A ridge aloft remains centered over the deep south this morning
and will remain in place today and Thursday. A surface ridge will
also keep a light onshore flow in place. A lack of cooling
showers, ample August sunshine, and plenty of humidity will
combine for apparent temps in the danger zone again today. Max
afternoon heat index values are expected to climb into the 105 to
112 range this afternoon. While the forecast is mostly dry today
and Thursday isolated showers and storms will be possible along
the sea breeze during the afternoon. A heat adv is in effect for
today, and another will be needed for Thursday.

A weakness aloft may move across the region on Friday. This may
allow for scattered showers and storms over Acadiana while the
remainder of the area has lesser chances. The August heat will
remain in place however.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

The extended period continues to be dominated by a broad upper level
ridge extending across much of the southern U.S. An upper level low
over the Great Lakes this weekend will gradually merge with a
Northward advancing Ernesto. Guidance is in good agreement on this
combination pushing a frontal boundary pretty aggressively to the
coast and into the gulf late Saturday into Sunday. Consensus PoPs
have increased Saturday afternoon in response to the expected fropa
and at 20-50%, this looks to be the highest overall PoP values of
the forecast period. The post frontal airmass does look to have some
relatively drier air in it that could drop dewpoints back into the
low to mid 70s each day early next week keeping apparent
temperatures in check. The downside is that the lower dewpoints will
allow for warmer actual temperatures and there is decent consensus
for upper 90s to 100 Sunday through Tuesday.

Jones

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1134 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Quiet, VFR conditions are ongoing in response to high pressure
aloft centered overtop the region. Expect VFR to prevail overnight
with calm winds. LCH reported fog early Tuesday morning, which
likely formed due to lingering smoke in the area. There does
remain some smoke local to LCH so MVFR VIS fog was included in a
tempo group for the early morning hours.

High pressure will remain in charge through the remainder of the
TAF period. Some isolated convection will be possible, primarily
at coastal terminals, during the afternoon and early evening
hours.

Lightly breezy winds will prevail from the south as surface high
pressure meanders to the east.

All convection and low clouds will dissipate after 01Z as the sun
sets and winds become calm.

11/Calhoun

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 354 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

A light onshore flow will remain in place into the weekend.
Isolated showers will be possible around sunrise.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  99  76  99  76 /  10  10  10   0
LCH  94  78  94  79 /  20   0  20   0
LFT  99  80  99  80 /  20  10  30  10
BPT  96  78  97  78 /  20  10  20   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ027>033-044-045-
     055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ180-201-259>262-
     515-516-615-616.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....66
AVIATION...05