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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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076 FXUS64 KLCH 141449 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 949 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 944 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Looking at no changes to the forecast with the morning update. Another hot one out there with the upper level ridge in place to help suppress most convection and allow air temperatures to soar. Plenty of low level moisture in place to bring about high humidity to go along with hot temperatures with afternoon max heat index values in heat advisory criteria. A few showers or storms will be possible in the mid to late afternoon mainly near the coast with max heating and any seabreeze that tries to develop and move inland. Rua && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday night) Issued at 354 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Hot and humid conditions are anticipated through the short term. A ridge aloft remains centered over the deep south this morning and will remain in place today and Thursday. A surface ridge will also keep a light onshore flow in place. A lack of cooling showers, ample August sunshine, and plenty of humidity will combine for apparent temps in the danger zone again today. Max afternoon heat index values are expected to climb into the 105 to 112 range this afternoon. While the forecast is mostly dry today and Thursday isolated showers and storms will be possible along the sea breeze during the afternoon. A heat adv is in effect for today, and another will be needed for Thursday. A weakness aloft may move across the region on Friday. This may allow for scattered showers and storms over Acadiana while the remainder of the area has lesser chances. The August heat will remain in place however. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 354 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 The extended period continues to be dominated by a broad upper level ridge extending across much of the southern U.S. An upper level low over the Great Lakes this weekend will gradually merge with a Northward advancing Ernesto. Guidance is in good agreement on this combination pushing a frontal boundary pretty aggressively to the coast and into the gulf late Saturday into Sunday. Consensus PoPs have increased Saturday afternoon in response to the expected fropa and at 20-50%, this looks to be the highest overall PoP values of the forecast period. The post frontal airmass does look to have some relatively drier air in it that could drop dewpoints back into the low to mid 70s each day early next week keeping apparent temperatures in check. The downside is that the lower dewpoints will allow for warmer actual temperatures and there is decent consensus for upper 90s to 100 Sunday through Tuesday. Jones && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1134 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Quiet, VFR conditions are ongoing in response to high pressure aloft centered overtop the region. Expect VFR to prevail overnight with calm winds. LCH reported fog early Tuesday morning, which likely formed due to lingering smoke in the area. There does remain some smoke local to LCH so MVFR VIS fog was included in a tempo group for the early morning hours. High pressure will remain in charge through the remainder of the TAF period. Some isolated convection will be possible, primarily at coastal terminals, during the afternoon and early evening hours. Lightly breezy winds will prevail from the south as surface high pressure meanders to the east. All convection and low clouds will dissipate after 01Z as the sun sets and winds become calm. 11/Calhoun && .MARINE... Issued at 354 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 A light onshore flow will remain in place into the weekend. Isolated showers will be possible around sunrise. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 99 76 99 76 / 10 10 10 0 LCH 94 78 94 79 / 20 0 20 0 LFT 99 80 99 80 / 20 10 30 10 BPT 96 78 97 78 / 20 10 20 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ027>033-044-045- 055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254. TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ180-201-259>262- 515-516-615-616. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....66 AVIATION...05