101
FXUS64 KLCH 150056
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
756 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Heat index values this afternoon at reliable observation sites are
hovering around the 105 to 110 range, with the occasional higher
numbers verifying the heat advisory. Only convection so far this
afternoon has been near the sea breeze boundary which has not
made much progress inland. Any thunderstorm activity that
develops is expected to diminish around sunset.

Thursday looks like a repeat with the upper level ridge in
control. Hot and humid conditions will continue with max afternoon
heat index readings in the 107 to 113 range, so another heat
advisory will be in effect. Any shower or storm activity will
occur during max heating in the mid to late afternoon and be near
the sea breeze or any Atchafalaya Basin convergence zones that may
develop.

On Friday,the upper level ridge retrogrades a little to the west
and this may bring about a better chance for afternoon showers and
thunderstorms, especially over eastern portions and near the
Atchafalaya Basin. Despite the increase prospect in convection,
afternoon max heat index readings will likely be in the heat
advisory criteria.

Rua

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

An upper level trough looks to move down from the northwest and
into the weakness in the ridging aloft on Saturday. This is
expected to allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms during
the afternoon hours. However, the possible frontal boundary at the
surface that would bring lower dew points and thus lower heat
index readings, is now looking like it will stall north of the
forecast area. Therefore, the possibility of a heat advisory will
continue depending on how much convection can fire up.

Rain chances will decrease again on Sunday into early next week as
the upper level ridge expands into the forecast area again.
Therefore, very hot and humid conditions also look to persist.

Rua

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 727 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

VFR conditions expected overnight with a changeover to MVFR
ceilings after 14Z Thursday. High pressure and relatively dry
airmass over the area should keep the radar quiet. Only very
isolated showers will be possible in afternoon hours.

11

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Not too much looks to change for the marine forecast for the
remainder of the week into the weekend. Weak surface ridging will
be noted over the coastal waters as a front stalls to the north.
Therefore, the light onshore flow and low seas will continue
through the period. Although the upper level ridge will weaken
some over the region on Friday and Saturday, shower and
thunderstorm activity will be a minimum with just isolated to
widely scattered noted over the coastal waters. Activity offshore
will have a better chance at night into the early morning, the
best chance for activity near shore in the afternoon and early
evening.

Rua

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  76  99  76  97 /  10  20  10  30
LCH  78  95  78  94 /   0  20  10  50
LFT  80  98  79  95 /  10  40  10  60
BPT  78  97  78  96 /   0  10   0  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ027>033-044-045-
     055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ027>033-044-
     045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ180-201-259>262-
     515-516-615-616.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ180-201-
     259>262-515-516-615-616.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...11