123
FXUS64 KLCH 081732
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1232 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1035 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

TC Beryl was downgraded to a high end tropical storm as of the 10
AM advisory...regional 88Ds show the center of the system west of
Houston at this time. KBPT has gusted to 53 knots while KORG has
gusted 35 knots...thus no changes were made to inherited TS
Warning. Outer rain bands continue streaming over mainly our TX
zones this morning...expect these to expand ewd, along with
additional more diurnally-driven convection, through the course of
the afternoon. The tornado threat associated with the storm will
also continue as Beryl inches nwd...and a new tornado watch was
issued for the wrn 1/2 of the forecast area through 22L/03z to
account. All associated public products have been issued for these
hazards, including the going Flood Watch.

Otherwise no changes to inherited grids/zones.
25

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 502 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Persistent showers and storms will continue as Beryls bands move
across the area. 24h radar estimated rainfall maximums are in the
3- 5 inch range, with those higher totals in southern Jefferson Co
and Cameron Par. Forecast PWATs today are well over the 90th
percentile, with some near their daily max.

As of 4AM, Beryl made landfall near Matagorda as a category 1
hurricane with sustained wind speeds near 80 MPH. It will continue
to weaken as it moves inland, however we will still have impacts in
our area. Specifically focusing on "inland" impacts, we currently
have a Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Warning in effect
for Lower Jefferson and a Tropical Storm Warning in effect for
Hardin, Tyler, and Upper Jefferson. Then we have a Coastal Flood
Warning in effect for Cameron and a Coastal Flood Advisory for
Southern Orange, Southern Calcasieu, Lower Vermilion, Lower Iberia
and Lower St. Mary. There is a Flood Watch in effect for all of
our SETX Counties. Lastly, as the environment is conducive for
tornadoes, we do have a Tornado Watch in effect for Hardin and
Jefferson.

Additional rainfall amounts over the next 3 days will be in the
2-4 inch range, however for SETX most of that is expected today
with trace amounts days 2&3. Then for parts of coastal LA, those
higher totals are expected over today and tomorrow. It is
certainly worth noting that locally higher amounts will be
possible. As a result, today parts of SETX are in a Moderate Risk
for excessive rainfall with a Slight to Marginal Risk area east of
there. Tomorrow Beryl will be over the ArkLaTx with bands
expected to set up / train along coastal Louisiana. We are
highlighted in a day 2 Slight Risk ERO as a result.

Thanks to rain and overcast skies, highs today will be much cooler
in the low to mid 80s across SETX and parts of west central to
southwestern Louisiana. Unfortunately they will be a bit warmer in
the lower 90s across parts of central to south central Louisiana.
With that and higher dewpoints, it would not be out of the realm of
possibility to see near or above Heat Advisory criteria.

Even with Beryl moving off as an extratropical low going into the
latter half of the period, some moisture will still stick around.
As a result, the area can look forward to showers and storms
mainly in the afternoon to evening timeframe.

Tomorrow and Wednesday temps will be in the low to mid 90s across
the entire area with lows in the 70s. A weak frontal boundary
will help in limiting higher dewpoints during that time, with no
heat hazards expected.

Stigger/87

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 502 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

A weakness will persist over the region south of a midlevel
trough extending from the central CONUS into the Great Lakes. The
trough will gradually lift northeast by the weekend, with ridging
over the SE coast building west across the Gulf coast. Shower and
thunderstorm chances will be mainly diurnally driven through the
period, with greater coverage expected Thursday and Friday before
becoming more scattered by the weekend. PWATs, while still
somewhat elevated, are not expected to be as extreme as they were
prior to and during Beryl`s landfall. Still, with values hovering
between roughly 1.7 and 2.1 inches, locally heavy rainfall and
flooding will be possible in some locations.

High temperatures along and south of I-10 will be near 90 or into
the lower 90s Thursday and Friday when shower coverage is expected
to be higher. Further north, highs are expected to reach the middle
90s. By the weekend and into early next week, daytime temperatures
will gradually increase as ridging aloft builds, with highs reaching
the middle to upper 90s. A return to Heat Advisory headlines could
be in the works by Sunday and Monday as maximum heat index readings
are forecast to reach 108 to 112 degrees in a few locations.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)

Beryl centered around 45 miles nnw of Houston continues to move
north northeast around 13 mph. Several rainbands streaming north
will cause tropical storm conditions at BPT, recently gusting to
49 kts. Expect the LIFR visibility/ceilings and gusty winds
within the rainbands, with some improvement outside the rainband.
Similiar conditions expected at LCH, except slightly lower winds.
Further east at AEX/LFT/ARA, expect southeast to south winds
around 15-20 kts with gusts near 30 kts possible within the
rainbands. Improvement expected overnight into Tuesday.

08/DML

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 502 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Beryl has officially made landfall this morning. Tropical storm
conditions are expected today over Sabine Lake and Sabine Pass,
Texas and adjacent coastal waters westward, with Small Craft
Advisories further east. As Beryl moves further inland, winds and
seas will gradually subside going into tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  91  70  92 /  70  40  10  20
LCH  76  90  75  91 /  70  60  30  50
LFT  79  92  77  93 /  60  80  30  50
BPT  74  92  74  93 /  60  50  30  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Coastal Flood Warning until 1 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ073-074.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ241-252>254.

TX...Tropical Storm Warning for TXZ180-201-515-615.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ616.

     Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for TXZ180-201-259>262-515-
     516-615-616.

GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ430-450-470.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Tuesday for GMZ432-452-455-
     472-475.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...08