633
FXUS64 KLCH 102102
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
402 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

A weak and nearly stationary frontal boundary remains draped across
SE LA west along the LA coastline this afternoon, representing the
NWD extent of a deeper pool of Gulf MSTR.  Coupled with an upper
level trough of low pressure and diurnal instability, this has
yielded scattered convection across mainly lower Acadiana earlier
this afternoon.  Much of that inland activity has now waned, though
there remains some potential for another few hours for additional
development to occur along any outflows and/or the sea breeze.
Remainder of the area has remained mostly sunny and warm, with
temperatures topping out in the lower to mid 90s. Dewpoints in the
upper 60s to lower 70s have held apparent temperatures to around
100, which while not pleasant, is well shy of heat advisory
criteria.

Any lingering inland convection will end with the loss of diurnal
instability, with a generally quiet overnight period expected away
from the coast where some nocturnal/early morning showers and
thunderstorms are expected. Seasonal low temperatures in the
lower to mid 70s are expected THU morning.

The weak SFC front is progged to gradually lift north and wash out
over the next couple of days, with the main impact being an influx
of deeper Gulf MSTR farther north into the area THU-FRI. Coupled
with the lingering upper trof axis overhead and diurnal instability,
enhanced chances (40% north to 70% south) of daytime showers and
thunderstorms are expected. A slight narrowing of the diurnal
temperature range will also occur, with lows a little higher and
highs a little lower given the increased MSTR and convection/cloud
cover.

13

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

By the weekend, the trof will begin to fill as ridging aloft
tries to build in, but this looks to be a "dirty" ridge with
pockets of elevated MSTR remaining trapped within it.
Consequently, rain chances will begin to decrease on SAT and drop
a bit each day into the upcoming work week, but won`t go away
entirely. In addition, temperatures will start to creep up as
well, which combined with SFC dewpoints in the mid/upper 70s, will
boost apparent temperatures into the 105-110 range.

13

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the taf period. A
quasistationary frontal boundary bisects the region roughly along
the I-10 corridor. Expect scattered thunderstorms to develop
along and south of this boundary through approximately sunset.
Storms are most likely to impacts LFT and ARA during this time
owing to the higher moisture content in these areas. With the
frontal boundary expected to meander somewhat during the day,
winds are likely to remain light and variable through the period.
Storms will redevelop off the coast overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected through
the weekend, with the greatest coverage typically overnight into the
morning each day. A light onshore flow will prevail through early
next week.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  72  94  73  94 /   0  10   0  40
LCH  75  90  76  90 /  20  60  20  70
LFT  76  91  77  93 /  20  70  10  70
BPT  75  90  76  91 /  20  60  30  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...08