Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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719 FXUS64 KLCH 010434 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1134 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 923 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 A very moist and unstable environment still exists across the forecast area despite sunset. The 01/00z upper air sounding from KLCH had a PWAT values at 2.35 inches. The cluster of storms in northern Louisiana was able to hold together with the moist and unstable environment and move into central Louisiana. However, instability is expected to decrease over the next couple of hours and would expect this activity to weaken and diminish by midnight as it tries to move into Acadiana. For the remainder of the night, with such a moist airmass, would not be surprised to see nocturnal shower activity to form overnight just off the coast with an enhanced land breeze. However, with mean mid level flow from the north, would expect activity to stay offshore. Grids and forecast has been updated to reflect the latest radar trends and short term guidance. Rua && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 354 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 There have been no significant changes in forecast thinking and the overall synoptic setup. We still have an extensive upper level ridge that expands over the Gulf Coast States along with another upper ridge over the Atlantic Coast. Newly formed TD3 is over the Bay of Campeche, however it is expected to move inland into Mexico tonight. Any moisture from this system is not expected to reach this far north. No other impacts can be expected from this system. We do have some sea breeze / diurnally driven isolated showers and storms that have continued to pop up this afternoon. Coverage is widely isolated and is expected to remain that way until we see this activity taper out with the loss of heating. There is a cold front stretched from parts of Texas and into the Southeastern States. While the front is set to move through the area Monday and into Tuesday, we will not receive significantly cooler or drier air as a result. Winds will temporarily shift out of the north tomorrow as the surface high pressure builds into the area. Unfortunately it moves off quickly with flow reorganizing out of the south on Tuesday. Heat Advisories at a minimum will be the story for the short term period. We have one today, one was issued for the same time tomorrow, and it is highly likely that we will have one for Tuesday. In regards to tomorrow, heat indices are approaching Excessive Heat Warning criteria and an upgrade is certainly not out of the realm of possibility. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Saturday) Issued at 354 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 By Wednesday a large high pressure cell previously centered over the Great Lakes region now moves off the coast of New England with modest ridging extending toward the Appalachia Bay / Nrn Florida before broadening across the central Gulf of Mexico. Locally, this places SETX and SWLA along the SW periphery of the sfc high pressure pattern while the upper level pattern continues to maintain a large ridge axis from Tx to then Carolinas. With slack to broad troughing along the western Gulf, continued coastal summertime showers / storms are fair game with signals of a trough retrograding west across the area before dissipating from intruding dry air along in Tx. Thus a hardly noticeable reduction in diurnal temperatures will occur with greater cloud coverage and any associated precipitation. Thursday, the upper level ridging broadens / weakens as an upper level trough develops over West gulf and shifts inland across NE Mexico into Friday. A gradual increase in diurnal temperatures is expected through the end of the week as the surface ridge continues to broaden over eastward. Given the persistent southerly onshore flow, those summertime thunderstorms will continue to initiate along Srn parts of Louisiana and Texas on an isolated scale. The start of the upcoming weekend has in store a shortwave trough further upstream. This feature will deepen south over the Midwest with surface low shifting east over the Great Lakes. South of this region of more convergent upper level pattern remains a boundary at the surface draped across the ARKLATEX and TN Valley through Saturday. While the boundary is not forecast to shift into SETX and SWLA, signals for increase POPs occur into the weekend areawide. Meanwhile the upper level ridge begins to modify and narrow along off the Carolinas and SECONUS. Currently, there are no tropical impacts forecast for SETX and SWLA over the next 4-5 days. Kowalski/30 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1126 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Diurnal convection from today has diminished. The remainder of the night should see mainly stable conditions with VFR to go along with light and variable winds and high level cloudiness. On Monday, expect a better chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms as a weak surface boundary moves into the forecast area. Will have PROB30 groups at all terminals starting after 01/19z. Away from any storms, VFR conditions will prevail. Rua && .MARINE... Issued at 255 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Weak high pressure at the surface will ridge across the northern Gulf of Mexico for the next several days. This will allow for mainly light onshore flow to go along with mainly low seas. Through the next several days, scattered to occasionally widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected each day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 79 97 76 98 / 30 50 10 20 LCH 80 95 80 94 / 10 70 20 40 LFT 82 97 81 96 / 20 80 20 60 BPT 79 97 80 96 / 10 50 10 20 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for LAZ027>033-044- 045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254. TX...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for TXZ180-201- 259>262-515-516-615-616. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...87 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...07