Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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671 FXUS64 KLCH 022118 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 418 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 404 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 A weak stationary front has stalled out along NELA while stretching east under a region of sfc high pressure located along New England and the Carolinas. With very dry air mixed in the lower atmosphere, shower / thunderstorm activity is more limited through the evening hours. However, in line with some of short range guidance showers and storms developing over Acadiana will continue to build to the West before gradually dissipating into the early AM hours of Wednesday. Well continue to see the potential for shower and storms Wednesday as a weak trough axis shifts west along the LA Gulf Coast toward SETX. These showers / storms will temper down the heat across coastal locations so at this time have not included these areas (primarily south of I-10) within the CWA for the Heat Advisory 11AM- 7PM CDT Wednesday. However, more interior SETX and SWLA locations will experience slightly higher temperatures which hedge just into heat advisory criteria at this time. Regardless, temperatures in the low to mid 90s and dewpoints in the 70s will make for very hot conditions which still warrant frequent breaks and sufficient hydration when exposed to this weather for prolonged periods of time. That will be the case across the CWA regardless of heat headlines. On Independence Day(Thursday), the temperatures remain similar to ranges as the previous day trending low to mid 90s with the higher temperatures focused into interior SETX / SWLA. That said, do note any summertime shower activity appears to trend most favorably along the Acadiana region. Despite POPS in the forecast, not expecting washout forecast for the day. Currently Isolated to scattered showers / storms are forecast for the midday with a slot of low level dry air from the SSW west becoming entrained in the environment signaling POPs to decrease toward the evening and further trend down overnight. For those planning to spend extra time outdoors for various festivities, do note, temperatures will still be quite warm with the humidity into the evening hours so frequent breaks and hydration are encouraged, even with southerly breezes around 5-10mph. Hereafter, high pressure will continue to broaden / slacken across the Gulf Coast overnight into Friday. Kowalski/30 && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Monday) Issued at 404 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Some minor but no significant change in thinking or increase in confidence in parts of the long term forecast. Overall we can expect higher PoPs and lower (but still hot) temperatures. It should be noted that temperatures will remain above average for the duration of the period, however they will be borderline Heat Advisory criteria at best. The upper ridge that has kept the Gulf Coast hot and mostly dry will begin to weaken and flatten as it is moved off to the east with an approaching upper trough. Closer to the surface, there will be a high pressure over the eastern gulf that will keep our winds mostly out of the south over the long term period. A cold front will also move close to the region, however it will not make its way south into the area. We will see an increase in PWATs as the front sags across central to eastern Texas and across into southern Arkansas. By Saturday, we will see PWATs at or above the 90th percentile. This combined with diurnal processes will lead to an increase in PoPs and rainfall totals across the region. At this time, the northern half of the CWA is in a day 5 Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall. This will be watched as the week progresses. Regarding the tropics, confidence still remains low as we get closer to the weekend and beyond that point. The latest trends generally show a slightly more northern track in comparison to previous days. Overall it is expected to emerge into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, then turn slightly more towards the north. Around the Sunday into Monday timeframe, models do have it inland anywhere the south Texas / northern Mexico coast. Again, and this cannot be stressed enough, confidence in track forecast and intensity remains low and this is something that will be closely monitored through this week. Stigger/87 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 404 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Mainly VFR conditions to trend throughout the evening hour, save some coastal locations along Acadiana and south of I-10 which may continue to see some VCTS through the early evening hours. Winds will generally remain lighter out of the south and may become variable at times through dawn. A weak trough axis will shift west along Coastal LA and TX through the afternoon bringing Isolated to scattered VCTS. 30 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 77 97 76 95 / 0 30 0 30 LCH 80 91 79 92 / 0 60 10 50 LFT 81 93 80 94 / 10 80 10 70 BPT 79 93 79 93 / 0 60 0 40 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ027>029-033-044-045-055-152>154-252>254. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for LAZ027>029- 033. Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ030>032-073-074- 141>143-241>243. TX...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ180- 259-260. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ180-259- 260. Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ201-261-262-515- 516-615-616. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....87 AVIATION...30