Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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488 FXUS64 KLCH 052150 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 450 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 349 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Latest UA analysis and WV imagery shows a large trough across the central US, while what is now Tropical Storm Beryl transits the northern end of the Yucatan Peninsula. At the surface, a weak frontal boundary extends across the southern US from central AR into N TX. South of this front, hot and humid conditions continue to affect much of the area, with temperatures (outside of any convection) into the middle and upper 90s. Dewpoints today have stayed in the lower to middle 70s, which has produced heat index readings between 100 and 110 degrees. A Heat Advisory remains in effect through 7 PM. The main concern over the coming forecast period will be what happens with Beryl. The latest forecast from NHC has shifted the track slightly northward from this morning, with a landfall near Corpus Christi. Based on this forecast, the greater risks are expected to stay west of the area, but stronger winds, possibly to tropical storm force, could impact our outer coastal waters west of Cameron by late Sunday or early Monday. Additional shifts in the track forecast will be likely in the coming days and will be monitored for potential additional impacts to SE TX and possibly SW LA, but at this time, the main highlights continue to be the increasing risk for coastal flooding and higher winds/seas over the coastal waters. The potential for heavy rainfall and flooding will also become a concern, especially in the early to midweek timeframe as the system moves inland across TX. 24 && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 349 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Afternoon convection is expected the diminish this evening with the loss of daytime heating. The weak front to the north of the area will migrate slowly south overnight into Saturday, and this will help focus convection during the day. Copious tropical moisture remains in place with very high PWAT values from 2.2 to 2.4 inches over the region, and this, along with heating, will support more widespread rain chances across the area during the day. With weak steering winds aloft, there is a risk for heavy to torrential rainfall that could lead to flooding in urban and low lying areas, especially in areas where cell mergers occur. WPC has outlined the area in a MRGL risk (Level 1 out of 4) for excessive rainfall for Saturday. Rain chances will decrease once again by Saturday night. The front will begin to lift back to north Saturday night into Sunday as steering currents on the northern flank of Beryl become more southerly. By this time, the hurricane will be approaching the lower TX coast. Convection on Sunday will be a little more scattered, and PoPs may be a bit overdone as models suggest a wedge of slightly drier air will spread over the region. Any convection that does develop will be primarily driven by diurnal heating along residual mesoscale boundaries. Temperatures the next couple of days are expected to be a few degrees "cooler", with highs only reaching the lower 90s. This should take the edge off the oppressive heat of the past several days, and no heat advisories are expected as max apparent T values should stay below 107 degrees. 24 && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Thursday) Issued at 349 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Tropical moisture will peak at the beginning of the period across the region as easterly wave works across the central Gulf of Mexico. Guidance is less bullish on closing off a circulation with this feature this morning. If it does close off in the SW Gulf, the northern stream of deep moisture would become less than currently forecast. As of now PW`s are forecast to get above 2.5 with rain chances peaking on Tuesday with heavy rainfall possible across the area, especially the southern half of the area. Wednesday will continue to see a deep stream of tropical moisture translating west more into Texas and by Thursday PW`s will drop back to below 2 inches, however still plenty of moisture for scatter showers and thunderstorms, with normal summertime diurnal trends across the coastal water at night and moving inland during the day. Friday will see the lowest rain chances through the period, however another deep plume of tropical moisture will be on the way for Saturday. In addition to heavy rainfall, coastal flooding will be a concern if Tuesday and Wednesday if current tide model trends continue a breezy easterly and southeasterly winds translate across the coastal waters along with longer wave period swells developing in those wind conditions. 17 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1247 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Generally VFR conditions to prevail through the period with SCT daytime CU sometimes becoming BKN with bases AOA 3500 FT. Widely scattered to scattered SHRA/TSRA developing early this afternoon around the area, but potential at any particular airport warrants no more than VC mention. The exception is KLCH where an outflow boundary apparent on radar could promote a shower or storm over the next hour. Convection should diminish an hour or two after sunset, then redevelop again by late morning Saturday. Winds will be mostly light and variable through the period. 24 && .MARINE... Issued at 349 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Convective coverage looks to become more widespread over the weekend as a weakness develops aloft. Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will continue through tomorrow along with seas around 1-4 feet. Winds and seas will begin to ramp up on Sunday, especially across the southern zones, with seas increasing to around 5-8ft by the evening hours and winds around SCA criteria. Heading into Monday conditions will deteriorate further with tropical storm conditions becoming possible mainly across the southern and western most zones. In addition, periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms will be possible across all zones, with higher winds and seas likely near thunderstorms. Winds and seas will remain elevated into Tues and Wed however, gradual improvement is anticipated to begin by early Tuesday. 24/17 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 73 90 74 91 / 50 70 20 60 LCH 77 90 77 90 / 30 70 20 60 LFT 78 93 79 93 / 50 60 20 60 BPT 77 93 77 91 / 20 60 20 60 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ027>029-033-044- 045-055-152>154-252>254. TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ180-259-260. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...24