246
FXUS63 KLBF 041741
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1241 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

*Lingering thunderstorms this morning

*Below normal temperatures today, for July 4th holiday

*Chance of severe weather on Saturday

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 314 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Thunderstorms will continue to linger through the early
morning hours behind the cold front, which continues to advance
across the state. Storms are expected to be elevated through the
early morning hours with the main hazard being hail. There remains
some uncertainty as to how favorable the environment will be for
storms to become severe, thus expect most to stay sub-severe,
although there could be some upscale growth in north central
Nebraska, where the greatest threat for the strongest storms exist.
CAPE values across north central Nebraska will be marginal at best
this morning and lapse rates are poor, thus there is greater
confidence in storms staying non severe. Expect thunderstorms to be
out of the forecast area by mid-morning. After storms exit this
morning, the rest of the holiday is expected to remain dry with only
very slight chances for an isolated thunderstorms across far
northern Nebraska, generally along the NE/SD border.

As for high temperatures for the July 4th holiday, highs will be
cooler than normal with temps in the low 70s north of HWY 92 and in
the upper 70s south of there. This is around 5 to 10 degrees below
normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 314 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

A disturbance will move across the area on Saturday,
bringing the potential for thunderstorms across the area, some of
which could be strong to severe. There will be some marginal
moisture return to the area, generally east of HWY 61 looks to have
the best moisture, but moisture will be limited nonetheless.
CAPE values will be around 1000-1500 J/kg with marginal 0 to 6km
shear. A cold front will move through late Saturday into Sunday
and cool temperatures for Sunday, with highs only in the 70s.
An upper level ridge then begins to from in the Western CONUS
and will slowly build east. Temperatures across the western
portion of the forecast area will see the affects of the ridge
with highs reaching the mid to upper 80s by Wed. and Thu.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

VFR conditions are expected across the region through today.
Developing cumulus clouds with a few isolated showers and
general thunderstorms may approach VTN/GRN this afternoon, but
confidence in direct impacts bringing degraded flight rules is
low at this time. Expect clouds to diminish with loss of daytime
heating this evening leaving the latter half of the forecast
period predominantly clear with light westerly winds.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...Gomez
AVIATION...NMJ