313
FXUS62 KKEY 160755
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
355 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024
Another hot, muggy day is expected over the Florida Keys. Dew
points across the island chain remain in the upper 70s to near 80
degrees. A Heat Advisory was issued, again, today as CIMSS MIMIC
TPW measured a large swath of moisture across Florida Keys
nearshore waters. Breezes will remain variable as the presence of
Hurricane Ernesto, curving back into the Atlantic, and an upper
level trough over the Great lakes will keep the subtropical ridge
weak across Florida.

While variable breezes typically suggest a potential cloud line
across the Keys, the steering flow will veer from northerly to
northwesterly throughout the day and remain light to gentle.
Mesoscale processes such as the sea breeze circulation off Florida
and Cuba are likely to be the main drivers for showers today.
However, the aforementioned trough will deepen as it moves east
and allow a weak surface trough to move south across Florida this
afternoon.

Tonight through Saturday night offer the best chance for rain
through the upcoming week. While the ECMWF attempts to develop the
boundary into a more robust front, statistical guidance indicates
the boundary will decay before reaching Florida Keys waters. PoPs
were kept in the 40s to reflect the lower chance of showers, but
the weak boundary is moving into a region of very moist, unstable
air. Once the boundary dissipates on Sunday and the mid latitude
trough stalls over the East Coast, the subtropical ridge will
rebuild and usher in light to gentle southwesterly breezes across
the island chain. Expect another hot and muggy work week with Heat
Advisories expected, and possibly an Excessive Heat Warning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 307 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024
There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the
Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, the duo of Hurricane
Ernesto, located north of Puerto Rico and moving north, and a
trough building over the Great Lakes will weaken the pressure
gradient across the Florida Keys through the weekend. Generally
light to gentle breezes will persist through Tuesday. Breezes will
veer clockwise with a low possibility of numerous showers on
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 307 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024
VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF
period. This time of year, shower activity cannot be fully ruled out
but for the time being confidence on location on any formation of
shower activity mention of VCSH is left out of the TAFs. Near
surface winds will continue to be light and variable becoming mostly
north to northeast.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this day in 1861, a Hurricane moved northwest through the Straits
just southwest of the Lower Keys.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening
     for FLZ076>078.

GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...AJP
Aviation/Nowcasts....AP
Data Acquisition.....AP

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