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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
313 FXUS62 KKEY 160755 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 355 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 307 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Another hot, muggy day is expected over the Florida Keys. Dew points across the island chain remain in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees. A Heat Advisory was issued, again, today as CIMSS MIMIC TPW measured a large swath of moisture across Florida Keys nearshore waters. Breezes will remain variable as the presence of Hurricane Ernesto, curving back into the Atlantic, and an upper level trough over the Great lakes will keep the subtropical ridge weak across Florida. While variable breezes typically suggest a potential cloud line across the Keys, the steering flow will veer from northerly to northwesterly throughout the day and remain light to gentle. Mesoscale processes such as the sea breeze circulation off Florida and Cuba are likely to be the main drivers for showers today. However, the aforementioned trough will deepen as it moves east and allow a weak surface trough to move south across Florida this afternoon. Tonight through Saturday night offer the best chance for rain through the upcoming week. While the ECMWF attempts to develop the boundary into a more robust front, statistical guidance indicates the boundary will decay before reaching Florida Keys waters. PoPs were kept in the 40s to reflect the lower chance of showers, but the weak boundary is moving into a region of very moist, unstable air. Once the boundary dissipates on Sunday and the mid latitude trough stalls over the East Coast, the subtropical ridge will rebuild and usher in light to gentle southwesterly breezes across the island chain. Expect another hot and muggy work week with Heat Advisories expected, and possibly an Excessive Heat Warning. && .MARINE... Issued at 307 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, the duo of Hurricane Ernesto, located north of Puerto Rico and moving north, and a trough building over the Great Lakes will weaken the pressure gradient across the Florida Keys through the weekend. Generally light to gentle breezes will persist through Tuesday. Breezes will veer clockwise with a low possibility of numerous showers on Saturday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 307 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period. This time of year, shower activity cannot be fully ruled out but for the time being confidence on location on any formation of shower activity mention of VCSH is left out of the TAFs. Near surface winds will continue to be light and variable becoming mostly north to northeast. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1861, a Hurricane moved northwest through the Straits just southwest of the Lower Keys. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ076>078. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...AJP Aviation/Nowcasts....AP Data Acquisition.....AP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest