Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
490 FXUS62 KKEY 081523 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1123 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1120 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 Another summer day is underway across the Florida Keys. KBYX radar detects a few showers with a thunderstorm here and there bubbling along old outflow boundaries in the Straits of Florida and in the Gulf waters west of the Lower Keys. Meanwhile, GOES-19 visible imagery notes cumulus cloud streamers propagating southwest off of the Middle Keys with not much else over the island chain. This has allowed for a warm start to today with temperatures on land already reading in the mid to upper 80s. Moderate northeast to east winds prevail along the Reef and up into South Florida with a mainland shadow keeping skies clear in our Gulf waters just off of Florida`s west coast. Overall, breezes are slightly higher than yesterday while shower coverage has shifted more to our southern waters. The short term forecast finds us in a bit of a lull regarding rain chances. Normally, a typical summer day with gentle to moderate northeast breezes and average moisture content would point us towards cloudlines forming along the island chain. While this isn`t entirely out of the question, there are a few factors working against it today. While this morning`s KKEY sounding did observe a near normal PW value (~1.8 inches), CIMSS MIMIC TPW depicts a swath of relatively dry air (PW of ~1.6 inches) over the keys between a slug of tropical moisture in the Gulf and moisture associated with the incoming inverted trough churning through the east end of The Bahamas. Furthermore, dry air observed just above the inversion at 900 mb may also be entraining into pockets of developing convection making any deep development short lived at best. Finally, breezes are a touch higher than the usual nearly stationary cloudline likes to live in. Despite all of these factors working against rainfall, we still are opting to sit on the higher side of guidance with slight rain chances just below normal for this time of year. As the previously mentioned inverted trough continues to shift west, rain chances will gradually increase through tonight and into tomorrow. && .MARINE... Issued at 1120 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the coastal waters of the Florida Key. From synopsis, a building Atlantic High will sustain gentle to moderate breezes for the next few days. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will be close to normal through Wednesday, but an easterly wave and veering winds may generate elevated shower coverage from Wednesday evening through the end of the week. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1120 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH today. While some cloud streamers may develop today and showers cannot be ruled out, high uncertainty in timing and actual occurrence of these features will leave mention out of either TAF for now. Near surface winds will be out of the northeast to east at near 10 knots with some occasional higher gusts near 15 knots, gradually decreasing into this evening. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 2023, the daily record high temperature of 97F was recorded at Marathon. Temperature records for Marathon date back to 1950. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 91 81 91 81 / 20 20 30 40 Marathon 89 81 89 81 / 20 20 30 40 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...JAM Aviation/Nowcasts....JAM Data Acquisition.....JAM Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest