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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
393 FXUS62 KKEY 111837 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 237 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 234 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Another warmer than average summer day will mark the start of the week for the Florida Keys. The heat advisory verified across the Florida Keys by 2 PM. Dewpoints remain in the upper 70s, supporting showers and thunderstorms along a convergence zone over the distant Straits of Florida. The western edge of the Atlantic ridge axis continues to linger over central Florida and limit the amount of thunderstorms over the Florida Keys. East-northeasterly breezes initiated a weak cloud line west-southwest of Key West in an atmosphere of over 2 inches of precipitable water as measured by the 12Z morning RAOB and satellite derived TPW. Synoptic-scale features that could disrupt the high pressure over the southeastern United States are not present at the start of the week, and the next two days will be dominated by weak undulations in the easterlies. A shallow SAL layer will move across the Florida Keys waters on Monday, but it will be accompanied by slight cyclonic veering, which kept PoPs near normal despite the presence of dry air. A pulse of tropical moisture will follow in the SAL`s wake on Tuesday, prompting above-average PoPs. Near the end of the week, a trough over east CONUS will guide a weak front south towards central Florida and initiate light and variable winds across the Keys and potentially above average PoPs on Friday and Saturday. Exact details of where and how quickly the front will move are uncertain, as its associated trough will interact with a tropical disturbance located east of the Antilles as of Sunday afternoon. This disturbance, designated AL98, is forecast to curve north towards Bermuda while east of the Bahamas, so its impacts to the Florida Keys are expected to be minimal. && .MARINE... Issued at 234 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys. From synopsis, the Atlantic ridge axis continues to extend north of the Keys coastal waters. Gentle to moderate easterly breezes will slacken on Wednesday with breezes veering to northwesterlies on Thursday night as a weak front moves south from the Continental United States towards central Florida. Breezes will become more chaotic by Friday as the ridge axis fractures over Florida. A tropical disturbance to the east of the Bahamas will move north towards Bermuda Friday and Friday night. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 234 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Light easterly (080-100 at 8 knots) steering flow and a seasonally moist vertical profile will maintain near normal rain/thunder chances at the EYW and MTH terminals through the evening. Satellite and radar trends suggest a trend in decreasing coverage will be maintained for the next several hours. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1913, the daily record cold high temperature of 81F was recorded in Key West. This is also tied for the coldest high temperature ever recorded in August. Temperature records in Key West date back to 1872. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ076>078. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...AJP Aviation/Nowcasts....CLR Data Acquisition.....AJP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest