393
FXUS62 KKEY 111837
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
237 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Another warmer than average
summer day will mark the start of the week for the Florida Keys.
The heat advisory verified across the Florida Keys by 2 PM.
Dewpoints remain in the upper 70s, supporting showers and
thunderstorms along a convergence zone over the distant Straits of
Florida.

The western edge of the Atlantic ridge axis continues to linger
over central Florida and limit the amount of thunderstorms over
the Florida Keys. East-northeasterly breezes initiated a weak
cloud line west-southwest of Key West in an atmosphere of over 2
inches of precipitable water as measured by the 12Z morning RAOB
and satellite derived TPW. Synoptic-scale features that could
disrupt the high pressure over the southeastern United States are
not present at the start of the week, and the next two days will
be dominated by weak undulations in the easterlies.

A shallow SAL layer will move across the Florida Keys waters on
Monday, but it will be accompanied by slight cyclonic veering,
which kept PoPs near normal despite the presence of dry air. A
pulse of tropical moisture will follow in the SAL`s wake on
Tuesday, prompting above-average PoPs.

Near the end of the week, a trough over east CONUS will guide a
weak front south towards central Florida and initiate light and
variable winds across the Keys and potentially above average PoPs
on Friday and Saturday. Exact details of where and how quickly the
front will move are uncertain, as its associated trough will
interact with a tropical disturbance located east of the Antilles
as of Sunday afternoon. This disturbance, designated AL98, is
forecast to curve north towards Bermuda while east of the Bahamas,
so its impacts to the Florida Keys are expected to be minimal.



&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 234 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 There are currently no
watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys.
From synopsis, the Atlantic ridge axis continues to extend north
of the Keys coastal waters. Gentle to moderate easterly breezes
will slacken on Wednesday with breezes veering to northwesterlies
on Thursday night as a weak front moves south from the Continental
United States towards central Florida. Breezes will become more
chaotic by Friday as the ridge axis fractures over Florida. A
tropical disturbance to the east of the Bahamas will move north
towards Bermuda Friday and Friday night.


&&

.AVIATION...
(15Z TAFS)
Issued at 234 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Light easterly (080-100 at 8
knots) steering flow and a seasonally moist vertical profile will
maintain near normal rain/thunder chances at the EYW and MTH
terminals through the evening. Satellite and radar trends suggest
a trend in decreasing coverage will be maintained for the next
several hours.


&&

.CLIMATE...
On this day in 1913, the daily record cold high temperature of 81F
was recorded in Key West. This is also tied for the coldest high
temperature ever recorded in August. Temperature records in Key West
date back to 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ076>078.

GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...AJP
Aviation/Nowcasts....CLR
Data Acquisition.....AJP

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