Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
922 FXUS62 KKEY 100206 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1006 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1011 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025 An inverted trough located between Florida and The Bahamas formed a weakness in the Atlantic High over the past few days. The trough would cross the Florida Peninsula tomorrow at its current pace. GOES-East satellite returns depict pulses of thunderstorms along the eastern axis of the trough. While the atmosphere was dry earlier today, the 00Z sounding observed an increase in moisture in the 850-500 mb layer. Heights also fell over the past twelve hours. Despite an on paper more favorable environment, showers across the Keys CWA were restricted to clusters of showers over the northernmost Gulf Waters. Replenishing rounds of cirrus clouds helped keep temperatures moderated along the island chain. A chaotic environment will move across the Keys along the inverted trough. Moisture in the lower levels is expected to increase, and veering winds will provide a source of lift for convection. Convective Allowing Model (CAM) guidance suggests showers may form slightly before sunrise, but initial placement will depend on local scale features across the waters. Southeasterly veering winds during the day suggests cloud lines will struggle to form. Statistical guidance hints that shower coverage will decrease after sunset as the Atlantic Ridge rebuilds towards the Keys. && .MARINE... Issued at 1011 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025 From synopsis, an easterly wave will push through the Florida Keys late overnight and tomorrow along. A moisture plume will lift across the Keys coastal waters, and in conjunction with veering winds from the easterly wave, shower and thunder coverage will increase during the end of the week. A possible Saharan Air Layer pulse over the weekend may drop rain and thunder chances to near normal or below normal next weekend. Breezes are forecast to remain light to gentle throughout. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1011 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at EYW and MTH through 12Z this morning. A surge of moisture and veering winds will increase shower and thunderstorm coverage to warrant VCSH in the TAFs starting after sunrise. Periods of sub-VFR impacts are the terminals are possible near showers, but timing showers and exact impacts is too uncertain at this time. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...AJP Aviation/Nowcasts....AJP Data Acquisition.....DR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest