013
FXUS62 KKEY 120254
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1054 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 939 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024
Although the KBYX radar looked a little more exciting earlier
this evening, conditions have calmed down and we have been left
with just some spotty, isolated showers and thunderstorms being
detected over the distant eastern Florida Straits. Radar is also
detecting some residual outflow boundaries from earlier
thunderstorms over the peninsula transversing the area just to
our north. Keeping this in mind, the 00Z KEY sounding reflects an
environment that would support some showers overnight with CAPE
just shy of 3000 J/kg and near-zero inhibition. All of this is to
say that we are opting to keep the 30 percent PoPs overnight as
this looks like a case where a couple of us are woken up by some
thunder in the middle of the night.

Light easterly breezes will continue as well, and there are no
changes that need to be made to the forecast package.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 939 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024
There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect
for the Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, the Atlantic ridge
axis continues to extend north of the Keys coastal waters. Gentle
to moderate easterly breezes will slacken on Wednesday with
breezes veering to northwesterlies on Thursday night as a weak
front moves south from the Continental United States towards
central Florida. Breezes will become more chaotic by Friday as the
ridge axis fractures over Florida. A tropical disturbance to the
east of the Bahamas will move north towards Bermuda Friday and
Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 939 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024
VFR conditions with light easterly near surface winds near 10 mph
will prevail through the 24 hour period. Weather conditions should
remain dry and quiet overall, but TAFs reflect a window of
opportunity for VCSH between 07Z and 13Z. Some isolated showers
far off to the east of the terminals could make it to the vicinity
during the nighttime and early morning hours, but anything more
than that will have to be addressed with short term amendments at
a later time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  85  91  85  91 /  30  30  20  40
Marathon  83  90  84  90 /  30  30  30  40

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...DP
Aviation/Nowcasts....DP
Data Acquisition.....DR

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