585
FXUS62 KKEY 121445
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1045 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1033 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024
Water vapor imagery highlights a TUTT cell to the northeast of the
Greater Antilles, westerlies deep into the eastern United States,
and mean layer ridging over the southern Plains. The low-level
ridge extends west across south-central Florida and supports
gentle to moderate east southeasterlies across the Keys this
morning. Satellite derived moisture products (GOES TPW, GOES
CH-10, and CIRA LPW) place a narrow band of SAL pressing west
into the Straits of Florida. Backward trajectory modeling confirms
the source region for this dry plume is over northern Africa. The
early morning scattered showers and thunderstorms are now more
isolated in coverage, in fact, there are no thunderstorms at the
moment. We issued an update to lower rain chances to 20%. All
other weather elements are on track and need no adjustments.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1033 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024
There are no watches, warnings, or advisories currently in effect
for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. From synopsis, an
Atlantic ridge axis planted north of the Keys coastal waters will
promote gentle to moderate easterly breezes through the early part
of this week. Breezes will slacken and veer to the northwest by
Thursday night as a trough dips south along the Eastern Seaboard.
As a result, breezes will become more chaotic by Friday as the
ridge axis fractures over Florida. A tropical disturbance to the
east of the Bahamas will move north towards Bermuda Friday and
Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(15Z TAFS)
Issued at 1033 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024
Widely scattered showers across the Florida Keys will pulse and move
across EYW and MTH in the morning, prompting TEMPO updates and VCSH
through noon. A drier air mass will move across the island chain and
thus lower shower coverage for the afternoon and evening. Surface
breezes will veer east southeasterly and remain 5 to 10 knots.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this day in 1926, the daily record low temperature of 71F and the
daily record rainfall of 2.59" were both recorded in Key West.
Temperature records date back to 1872 and rainfall records date back
to 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ076>078.

GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...JAM
Aviation/Nowcasts....NB
Data Acquisition.....NB

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